- SWFX market sentiment is 61% bearish
- Trader pending orders are 53% bearish
- Pair opened Friday's session at 1.1208
- Upcoming Events: US Core Durable Goods Orders; US Preliminary GDP; Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
The Euro has returned against the US Dollar to the same level, where the week was started. From a technical perspective this squeeze in needs to end soon, and it would occur by a fundamental move. From a fundamental perspective everyone is cautious, as Trump does his global tour of 2017. However, there are some macroeconomic data releases scheduled for the day, which will be covered by the Dukascopy research team.
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose less than expected last week, official data showed on Thursday. The Labour Department reported that initial jobless claims rose 1K to 234% in the week ended May 19, following the preceding week's upwardly revised 233K. Meanwhile, market analysts anticipated an increase of 5K to 238K during the reported week. That marked the 116th of claims remaining below the 300K level, the longest stretch since 1973.
US data release at 12:30 GMT
Friday this week is the only day, when market participants should watch the economic calendar. The reason for that is the fact that there will be a data pack released in the US at 12:30 GMT. It will consist of the US Core Durable Goods Orders and most important the US Preliminary GDP. The data release will be covered by the Dukascopy Research Team on the bank's live webinar platform. In addition, at 14:00 GMT the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment is set to be released.
EUR/USD remains near 1.12 mark
During the early hours of Friday's trading session the common European currency traded against the US Dollar just above the strong support cluster near the 1.1190 level. It is almost exactly where this week's trading session began. Due to that factor the situation remains almost unchanged. From the downside the rate is supported by the combined support of the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level and the monthly R2 at the already mentioned level. From the upside the pair faces the resistance of the upper Bollinger band at 1.1310 and the weekly R1 at 1.1306. The only difference, compared with Monday, is the fact that the Bollinger band has moved higher.
Daily chart
The hourly chart reveals how the currency exchange rate is being squeezed in from a technical perspective. The support cluster is supported by the lower Bollinger band. Meanwhile, from the upside the currency pair faces the resistance of the 55-hour SMA at 1.1206, 20-hour SMA at 1.1208 and the 100-hour SMA at 1.1213. Moreover, the upper Bollinger band is moving in on the currency pair from the upside near the 1.1220 mark.
Hourly chart
Read More: Technical AnalysisTraders optimistic towards the US Dollar
Traders remain bearish on the pair, as 61% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, 53% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.
OANDA traders remain largely bearish, as 69.90% of open positions are short on Friday, compared to 67.55% previously. In addition, SAXO bank clients are likewise bearish, as 65.17% of open positions are short, compared to 65.97% on Thursday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.11 in late August
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between April 26 and today expect, on average, that the currency pair may trade slightly above 1.11 in late August. In general, 58% (-1%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be above 1.10 in the following ninety days, and 45% see it above 1.12.