- 66% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are to SELL
- Market sentiment is at equilibrium
- Important support lies circa 1.3240
- Upcoming events: UK Autumn Forecast Statement, US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, US Durable Goods Orders m/m, US Unemployment Claims, US Revised UoM Consumer Confidence, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The National Association of Realtors reported that the US existing home sales rose more than anticipated in October, revealing 2.0% gain to a seasonally adjusted yearly rate of 5.48M units in the reported month.
The NAR noted that house prices were still under pressure due to the shortage of available properties, remaining beyond the levels acceptable for some first-time buyers.
FOMC Meeting Minutes
The economic calendar for this session includes several fundamentals that should be noted. The UK is to start the day with its Autumn Forecast Statement at 1230GMT.
Meanwhile, the US will release monthly (Core) Durable Goods Orders and the weekly Unemployment Claims at 1330GMT and the Revised Consumer Sentiment by the University of Michigan at 1500GMT.
Finally, this session will end with FOMC Meeting Minutes released at 1900GMT.
GBP/USD rises along 55-hour SMA
As markets did not pay much attention to the UK Inflation Report Hearings, the cable continued to slowly surge along the rising 55-hour SMA within the junior ascending channel. By now, the currency pair has practically bypassed the upper boundaries of both senior channels.
A small positive signal, such as the Autumn Forecast Statement, would be enough to make a decisive breakthrough. Once this happens, the exchange rate will face no resistance level up until the weekly R1 located at the 1.3300 level.
However, the release of data on the US Core Durable Goods Orders alter this scenario and drag the currency pair back to the monthly PP at 1.3238.
Hourly chart
As apparent on the chart, the 55-day SMA has managed to limit gains for the fourth consecutive session. On Tuesday, the rate was likewise pressured by the monthly PP at 1.3238. This mark, however, was surpassed early in this session.
Given the current reluctance of the Sterling to move past the 55-day SMA, it is likely that gains are limited today. Moreover, bears might even take the upper hand and thus push the given currency below the monthly PP.
Daily chart
Bears strengthen their positions
The SWFX market sentiment stands at equilibrium on Wednesday, as 50% of open positions are both long and short. Meanwhile, 57% of pending orders are to sell the Pound.
OANDA traders are bullish in this session, as 52% of open positions are long (-1%). Meanwhile, Saxo Bank clients are still bearish on the Sterling, as 67% of their positions are short (-1%).