- SWFX traders are 56% bullish
- 57% of pending orders in 500-pip range are set to SELL the gold
- Gold price tries to reach 1,287.22
- Upcoming Events: US Core Durable Goods Orders, FOMC Meeting Minutes, Crude Oil Inventories
In line with expectations, the exchange rate failed to bypass the 100- or 55-hour SMAs yesterday. However, the upcoming release of the US macro data is expected to create a momentum that would either accelerate the surge or drag the pair back to the weekly S1.
The National Association of Realtors reported that the US existing home sales rose more than anticipated in October, revealing 2.0% gain to a seasonally adjusted yearly rate of 5.48M units in the reported month. The NAR noted that house prices were still under pressure due to the shortage of available properties, remaining beyond the levels acceptable for some first-time buyers.
Durable Goods Orders
At 13:30 GMT the US Census Bureau will publish an update on change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods ex transportation items. This event is expected to cause some volatility in the markets and will be covered by the Dukascopy Research Team.
XAU/USD struggles to break through MAs
As it was expected, lack of an upside momentum did not allow the pair to surge above the 1,282.00 level. Nevertheless, these attempts are expected to resume. First of all, two days ago the exchange rate made a rebound from the bottom trend-line of a large ascending channel, which implies the subsequent advance in the opposite direction. Second, yesterday's movement defined the boundaries of a new junior ascending channel, which is expected to provide an additional support for successful breakout through the 55- and 100-hour SMAs. Third, there will be a release of data on the US Core Durable Goods Orders, which are projected to decrease this, thus leading to deprecation of the Dollar. Finally, 63% of traders keep bullish outlook on the price of yellow metal.
Hourly Chart
Previous trading session, the pair indeed finished near the 1,282.00 mark. Nevertheless, today the surge is expected to continue, in accordance with trade patterns theory. Basically, the pair might rise to the 55-day SMA located at the 1,290.00 level. However, this scenario might materialize only if the released US data will not justify expectations.
Daily Chart
Markets sentiment remain bullish
Traders of Dukascopy are bullish on valuation of the gold, as 56% of open positions are long. Accordingly, 56% of pending commands are to buy the commodity.
OANDA traders are bullish, as 72% (-2%) of open positions are long, compared to previous trading day. In the meantime, SAXO bank traders are less bullish, as 60% (+2%) of open positions are long.