- SWFX market sentiment is 61% bearish
- Trader pending orders are 54% bearish
- Pair opened Wednesday's session at 1.0876
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Upcoming Events: ECB President Draghi's Speech; US Import Prices
The common European currency has paused its fall against the US Dollar. The reason for that is the fact that the US Dollar weakened in the last 24 hours due to a fundamental event. The reason was the fact that US President Donald Trump fired the Director of FBI James Comey. However, as the middle of the day approached, the financial markets were back on their previous courses.
The number of job openings in the US rose in March, according to the JOLTS monthly report. Data from the US Bureau of Labour Statistics released on Tuesday showed that the US job openings increased to 5.74M over the course of March, following the previous month's downwardly revised figure of 5.68M. Meanwhile, analysts anticipated a slight decrease to 5.67M. Job openings grew across business and professional services as well as in local and state government education, while they declined in education services.
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Upcoming events: Draghi and US Imports
The main event of the day will be the speech given by ECB President Mario Draghi, which will occur at exactly 12:00 GMT. Draghi is expected to give clues regarding the future monetary policy of the EU. Later in the day there will be another event occurring, as at 12:30 GMT the US Import Prices data will be published. However, this data release is highly unlikely to cause a notable effect.
Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD trades below 1.09 on Wednesday
On Wednesday morning the common European currency was regaining some of its losses against the US Dollar, as the currency exchange rate traded just below the 1.09 mark. The currency pair was still set to decline down to the strong support cluster below it. The cluster consists of the weekly S2 at 1.0833, 20 and 200-day SMAs at 1.0830 and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level, which is located at the 1.0826 mark. However, before that cluster is reached the rate might surge to the resistance put up by the weekly S1 at 1.0916.
Daily chart
The hourly chart reveals that the short term descending channel is still active and the bounce up in the Euro against the US Dollar was actually expected. The move represented the rebound from the lower trend line of the channel up to the previously active junior pattern's trend line. It is most likely that the currency rate will continue to move lower in the near future, as the upper Bollinger band and the 55-hour SMAs are closing in from the upside.Hourly chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Market sentiment strongly bearish
SWFX traders have not changed their opinion since Tuesday, as 39% of open positions are long and 54% of trader set up orders are to sell.
OANDA traders remain bearish, as 60.93% of trader open positions are short on Wednesday, compared to 60.62% previously. In addition, SAXO bank clients are also bearish, as 54.39% of open positions are short, compared to the 54.89% positions on Tuesday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.10 in August
© Dukascopy Bank SATraders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between April 10 and today expect, on average, the currency pair to trade around 1.10 in early August. In general, 50% of participants believe the exchange rate will be above 1.10 in ninety days, and 35% (+1%) see it above 1.12. In the meantime, 3% of those surveyed reckon the pair will be at parity or below.