Gold retreats below 1,250

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • SWFX traders are 51% bearish
  • 64% of pending commands are to buy the metal
  • The bullion opened at 1,250.59
  • Upcoming Events: FOMC Member Evans's Speech; US Pending Home Sales
During the early hours of Wednesday's trading session the yellow metal's price continued the decline, which began on Tuesday. The decline began, as the bullion failed to break the resistance of the 200-day SMA, which on Wednesday was located at the 1,257.80 mark. The metal was searching for support in the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level, which is located at the 1,248.96 level. However, various clues indicate that the commodity price will decline further.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased significantly despite experts' pessimistic forecasts. In March, it gained 8% and reached 125.6, which is the highest value since December 2000. Therefore, the number of consumers who evaluated business conditions as "good" rose from 28.3% to 32.2%. Moreover, the number of consumers who believed that there was "enough" job offers in the market also climbed from 26.9% to 31.7%. Accordingly, the number people who evaluated business conditions as "bad" decreased from 13.4% to 12.9%. In addition, the number of people who were experiencing "difficulties" finding a job slightly diminished from 19.9% to 19.5%.

Altogether, this mean that consumers believe that the current economic conditions have improved and that they are ready to increase their spending and investments. This also suggests that people are more optimistic about the near-term economic situation. For instance, the number of consumers who suggested that business conditions would improve even more in the next six months soared from 23.9% to 27.1%. At the same time, the number of consumers who suggested that more jobs would be created in the next six months also nudged from 20.9% to 24.8%.

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Upcoming events: FOMC and pending home sales

Wednesday's trading session is also set to be a quiet one, as only a few events are planned. FOMC member Evans is set to give another speech at 13:20 GMT. Only 40 minutes after that, at 14:00 GMT the US Pending Home Sales data will be released.



Gold retreats below 1,250 mark

Daily chart: After failing to score more gains on Tuesday the yellow metal declined, and the commodity price fell below the 1,250 mark, where it remained on Wednesday morning. Due to the fact that the bullion's price recently passed the support put up by the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level, which is located at the 1,248.96 mark, the price is set to fall. The reason for that is the fact that the closest support level is located at the 1,240.87 level. At that level the weekly PP is residing. The pivot point is also supported by the lower trend line of a medium term ascending channel.
Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Hourly chart: The hourly chart reveals that the metal has not fully passed the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level. The commodity price is in limbo around it. However, gold is most likely set to decline, as the 20 and 100-hour SMAs are moving in from the upside. Moreover, the 55-day SMA is located at the 1,253.93 level.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


Bullish sentiment decreases

SWFX market sentiment remains neutral bearish, as 51% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, 64% of trader set up orders are to buy the yellow metal.

OANDA Gold traders have decreased their bullish outlook, as open positions are 56.42% long on Wednesday, compared to 58.46% previously. In addition, traders of SAXO bank have also decreased the percentage of long positions, as 53.71% of open positions are long, compared to 56.84% on Tuesday.

Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility


Market participants foresee the price of Gold being at 1,300 by July

Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between February 29 and March 29 expect, on average, to see the metal near 1,300 in June. Generally, 51% (+1%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,300 in ninety days. Alongside, 36% of those surveyed reckon the currencies will trade in the range between 1,100 and 1,300 over the next three months.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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