- The portion of orders to acquire the Buck inched up from 65 to 66%
- 71% of all open positions are long
- Immediate resistance lies at 111.26
- The closest support rests around 110.25
- Upcoming events: US Goods Trade Balance, US CB Consumer Confidence, US Preliminary Wholesale Inventories
Orders for US-manufactured long-lasting goods rose more than expected last month, official figures revealed on Friday. The US Department of Commerce reported that orders for durable goods advanced 1.7% in February, following the preceding month's upwardly revised gain of 2.3% and surpassing analysts' expectations for a 1.1% increase. Excluding transportation equipment, orders for US-manufactured durable goods climbed 0.4%, compared to the previous month's reading of 0.0%. In the meantime, market analysts anticipated a bigger gain of 0.5% during the reported period.
However, the following rise marked the sixth straight monthly increase in orders for core durable goods. Analysts suggest that businesses will improve even more if US lawmakers succeed in lowering corporate taxes and reducing regulations. Non-defence capital goods orders excluding aircraft dropped 0.1%, following January's revised climb of 0.1% and falling behind expectations for a 0.5% increase. Shipments of non-defence capital goods excluding aircraft, used in calculating GDP, advanced 1.0% last month. Data also showed that orders for civilian aircraft rose 47.6%, compared to a 83.3% surge in the prior month. Boeing reported it received 43 orders for aircraft in February, up from the previous month's 26.
US CB Consumer Sentiment
There is not a lot of data due on Tuesday that could have a strong impact on the USD/JPY pair's performance. All attention turns mostly to the US CB Consumer Confidence. It captures the level of confidence that individuals have in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion, while a low level drives to economic downturn. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative.USD/JPY attempts to make another U-turn
Fortunately for the US Dollar, it managed to avoid substantial losses against the Japanese Yen yesterday. Nonetheless, a new four-month low was reached, but with the USD/JPY pair once again remaining above the 110.60 level, which appears to be providing strong psychological support. As a result, the Greenback has the opportunity to post gains today, as another leg down would cause a breach of this support. Moreover, the weekly S1 and the Bollinger band are somewhat bolstering the psychological demand area, even though technical studies are unable to confirm the possibility of a recovery.Daily chart
The USD/JPY pair continued to trade within the channel's borders yesterday, but made an attempt to pierce the upper border today. However, a breakout does not imply a trend-reversal, as the channel on the daily chart is to remain intact for now, with the 111.00 mark being the intraday high.
Hourly chart
Market sentiment remains bullish, as 71% of all open positions are long, compared to 72% yesterday. At the same time, the portion of orders to acquire the Buck inched up from 65 to 66%.
Right now 60% of OANDA clients are bulls, compared to 63% on Friday. In the meantime, Saxo Bank clients retain a positive outlook towards the US Dollar, being that 62% of their open positions are now long and the remaining 38% are short.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders are becoming increasingly bullish on the Dollar
According to the poll that gathered forecasts between February 28 and March 28, traders expect the US Dollar to appreciate to 114.88 yen in three months' time, while the forecast for March 31 was 117.66 yen. It is also worth noticing that 59% of all forecasts fall above 114 yen, which is above the current spot price. The majority of people voted expect the US Dollar to cost somewhere between 118.50 and 120.00 yen in three months, with 20% of the survey participants choosing this trading range. At the same time, the second most popular intervals were the 106.50-108.00 and the 115.50-117.00 ones, with 13% of survey participants choosing each of them.