EUR/USD regains losses

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • SWFX market sentiment is 54% bullish
  • Trader pending orders are 63% to sell
  • Pair opened Thursday's session at 1.0581
  • Upcoming Events: US New Home Sales, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
The Euro rebound against the Greenback continues, as the US Unemployment Claims and speeches from Mnuchin and Kaplan did not present anything that would drive the Dollar higher. Although, during Friday's trading session the pair was facing the resistance posed by the weekly PP. In addition, it seems that today's trading session will remain rather calm, since there are no significant releases of fundamental data scheduled. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased slightly more than expected last week, though the four week average dropped 4,000 to 241,000, weakest level since 1973, official figures revealed on Thursday. Last week's results were driven by growing economy and tight labor market, which is likely to prompt companies to retain experienced workers, supporting wage growth. According to the US Department of Labor, national jobless claims rose 6,000 to 244,000 during the week ended February 17 from the preceding week's upwardly revised 238,000. Meanwhile, economists anticipated an acceleration to 242,000 during the reported period. Filings have been holding below 300,000 for 103 straight weeks, showing healthy signs of the US job market.

In the meantime, continuing claims fell 17,000 to 2.06 million during the week ended February 11, while their four-week moving average dropped 10,750. Overall, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to increase interest rates fairly soon, with labor market and inflation data set to reveal better performance. The last time the Fed raised its benchmark overnight rate was in December last year, when the rate was increased from 0.5% to 0.75%.

Watch More: Dukascopy TV


Upcoming events: Two minor data releases in US

The fundamental events in the US today will be, for the most part, not very significant and are not likely to affect the exchange rate between the Euro and the Buck. The two data releases that are planned for today are US New Home Sales and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment scheduled for 15:00 GMT.



EUR/USD attempts to break resistance

Daily Chart: The Euro continued to book gains against the US Dollar during the early hours of Friday's trading session, as the currency exchange rate attempted to break through the resistance put up by the 55-day SMA, which was located at 1.0593. The pair already attempted to move higher during Thursday's trading. However, it failed to pass the SMA. Due to that and the fact that the weekly PP is located just above the SMA at 1.0604, it is most likely that the currency pair will fail once more and retreat lower by the end of Friday's trading session.

Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Hourly chart: The hourly chart shows that the common European currency has surpassed all the hourly moving levels of significance and is now held only by the hourly static resistance levels, such as the weekly PP at 1.0604. In addition, it seems that the exchange rate is currently moving in a rising wedge pattern, which may indicate that the Dollar is bound to fall even further.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


Markets remain bullish

SWFX traders have not changed their open positions proportions for the third consecutive session, as 54% of open positions are long. Meanwhile, 63% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.


OANDA traders have decreased their bullish view on the pair, as 55.95% of trader open positions are long at the marketplace, compared to 58.50% previously. Alternatively, SAXO bank clients are slightly more bearish on the pair, as 51.92% of the bank's clients are shorting the pair, compared to 50.48% on Wednesday.

Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility



Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.07 in May

Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between January 24 and February 24 expect, on average, the currency pair to trade around 1.07 by the end of May. In general, 48% (-1%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be generally below 1.06 in ninety days, and 26% see it below 1.02. In the meantime, 17% of those surveyed reckon the pair will trade above 1.12 in three months.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

Actual Topics

Subscribe to "Fundamental Analysis" feed

Subscribe
To learn more about Dukascopy Bank CFD / Forex trading platform, SWFX and other trading related information,
please call us or make callback request.
For further information regarding potential cooperation,
please call us or make callback request.
To learn more about Dukascopy Bank Binary Options / Forex trading platform, SWFX and other trading related information,
please call us or make callback request.
To learn more about Dukascopy Bank CFD / Forex trading platform, SWFX and other trading related information,
please call us or make callback request.
To learn more about Crypto Trading / CFD / Forex trading platform, SWFX and other trading related information,
please call us or make callback request.
To learn more about Business Introducer and other trading related information,
please call us or make callback request.
For further information regarding potential cooperation,
please call us or make callback request.