Gold fluctuates near 1,235

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • SWFX traders are 54% bullish
  • 61% of pending commands are to buy the metal
  • The bullion opened at 1,234.68
  • Upcoming Events: Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
The yellow metal has opened higher this week than it closed at the end of the previous one. In the first hours of today's trading the bullion's price has surged and is expected to continue this trend. Otherwise, the situation will probably remain unchanged, as there are no notable fundamental data releases scheduled for the next 24 hours. Due to that reason, the moving support of hourly SMA's is likely to push the commodity price higher.

US building permits advanced more than expected whereas homebuilding activity weakened in January, official figures revealed on Thursday. The Commerce Department reported building permits rose 4.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.29 million in January, following the previous month's upwardly revised 1.23 million units and surpassing analysts' expectations for a 1.23 million unit rate. The increase caught markets by surprise, as the figure reached the highest level since November 2015, suggesting solid growth in starts in the middle of 2017.

Meanwhile, housing starts declined 2.6% to an annualized rate of 1.25 million units in the same month, following December's upwardly revised reading of 1.28 million, whereas economists expected them to increase to a 1.23. Analysts suggest that the housing market recovery is likely to be sustained by strong labor market, which supported household formation. Separately, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve said its Manufacturing Index jumped to 43.3 points in February, the highest level in 33 years, driven by a jump in new orders, which climbed to 38.0 from 26.00. Data also showed the Employment Index fell to 11.1 from 12.8, while the Business Outlook Index for the next six months slid to 53.5 points.

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Upcoming events: Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

This is the only data release that may affect the price of the aforementioned commodity. Its effect may be significant due to the fact that Australia is a major miner of Gold. On the other hand, it is going to be a quiet next 24 hours until the data is released at 12:30 GMT on Tuesday.



Gold remains near 1,235 on Monday

Daily chart: The yellow metal remained almost unchanged during the early hours of Monday's trading session, as the bullion's price stayed near the 1,235 mark. However, gold attempted to move higher on Friday, as the commodity price had reached above the 1,240 level. The future direction of the bullion on Monday seemed unclear, but there are two possible way's the session might most likely end. The yellow metal could fall to the newly calculated weekly PP at 1,231.36 or surge up to the monthly R1, which is located at 1,237.68.
Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Hourly chart: Most recently, at 09: 00 GMT, the yellow metal has found its resistance at 20-hour SMA at 1,235.80. However, the strong moving support cluster consisting of 100, 200 – hour SMAs near 1,233 level might push the price upwards. Although, it is highly unlikely that the support cluster would be strong enough to push through the first monthly resistance level at 1,237.64, which is also enhanced by the 55-hour SMA.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


SWFX traders remain bullish

Traders remain long on the bullion, as 54% of trader open positions are bullish. In the meantime, 61% of trader set up orders are set to buy the metal.

OANDA Gold traders have increased their bullish outlook on the yellow metal, as open positions were 63% bullish on Monday, compared to 61% previously. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank have increased their bullish sentiment, regarding the yellow metal, as 60.27% of open positions are bullish, compared to 59.30% yesterday.

Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility


Market participants foresee the price of Gold being around 1,250 in May

Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between January 20 and February 20 expect, on average, to see the metal near 1,250 in May. Generally, 60% (-2%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,250 in ninety days. Alongside, 28% (-1%) of those surveyed reckon the currencies will trade in the range between 1,000 and 1,200 over the next three months.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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