- SWFX market sentiment is 51% bearish
- Trader pending orders are 60% to sell
- Pair opened Monday's session at 1.0628
- Upcoming Events: German Preliminary GDP; EU Flash GDP; German ZEW Economic Sentiment; US PPI; Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen's speech; FOMC Member's Kaplan's speech
The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits declined to an almost 43-year low, official figure revealed on Thursday. Last week's drop in claims was driven by tightening labor market, which is likely to prompt wage growth. According to the US Department of Labor, national jobless claims declined 12,000, to 234,000, during the week ending February 4 from the preceding week's upwardly revised 246,000. Meanwhile, economists anticipated a slighter deceleration to 250,000 during the reported period. Filings have been below 300,000 for 101 straight weeks — the longest streak since 1973.
In the meantime, the less volatile four-week moving average of initial claims dropped 3,750 to 244,250, the lowest level since November. Furthermore, continuing claims increased 15,000 to 2.08 million during the week ended January 28, while their four-week moving average fell 3,750 to 2.08 million. These claims, reported with a one-week delay, reflect the number of people already collecting unemployment benefits. Other data released by the Commerce Department on Tuesday showed US wholesale inventories climbed 1% in December, following a similar gain in November. Excluding automobiles, wholesale stocks grew 0.9% in December. The change in private inventories contributed 1% to GDP growth in the final quarter of 2016.
Upcoming events: Data releases on Tuesday
There are no data releases set for Monday, February 13. However, on Valentine's Day, statisticians are set to release a lot of macroeconomic data. As early risers, the Germans will publish the German Preliminary quarterly GDP at 7:00 GMT. Afterwards, at 10:00 GMT the EU Flash GDP together with the German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be published. In the second half of Tuesday's trading session information from the US will be coming out. At 13:30 GMT US PPI data will be published. Later in the day members from the Federal reserve are set to speak, as at 15:00 GMT Janet Yellen will give a speech and at 18:00 GMT FOMC Member Kaplan will speak.
EUR/USD drops below 1.0650 mark
Daily Chart: During the early hours of Monday's trading session the common European currency traded against the US Dollar below the 1.0650 mark. At that level the monthly PP was providing resistance to the currency pair. Meanwhile, from the downside the currency rate was supported by the 55-day SMA, which is located at 1.0605. It is most likely that by the end of the day the pair will remain rather unchanged, as after the fall below the 1.0650 level a consolidation of the rate is set to occur, and the pair will slightly surge.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart for the pair reveals that the lower Bollinger band of the Hourly chart has enough strength to stop the pair from falling. As a result a surge back to the 1.0650 mark has occurred twice. However, the resistance put up by various levels of significance is much stronger than the rebounds against the lower Bollinger band.
Hourly chart
SWFX traders almost neutral
SWFX traders are neutral bullish on the pair, as 51% of trader open positions are long. Meanwhile, 60% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.
OANDA traders also remain neutral bullish, regarding the pair, as 53.32% of open EUR/USD positions were long on Monday. Meanwhile, SAXO bank traders have decreased their bearish outlook, as 54.18% of open positions are short, compared to 55.46% previously.