- 60% of all SWFX open positions are long
- Pending orders sank into pessimism from 57% long commands on Friday to 40% on Monday
- Gold opened Thursday's session at 1,181.24
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, FOMC members Bullard and Dudley speak
The number of homes that went under contract inched higher in October, a sign the housing market could be plateauing in the final months of the year. The National Association of Realtors reported that its pending home sales index, which tracks contract signings for previously owned homes, edged up 0.1% from a downwardly revised September reading to a seasonally adjusted 110.0. Sales typically close within a month or two of signing. It is essential to note that while demand for housing is high, supply still continues to weaken across much of the nation and is well below 2015 levels. While homebuilders ramped up production in October, overall construction is still well below historical norms. Builders cite the high costs of land, labor and regulation as barriers to increased volume.
On Monday 21 of November ECB President Mario Draghi, during his speech has urged the European Union to stay united in the face of different challenges such as Brexit as he warned that the cohesion of Europe is being tested. Speaking in the European Parliament in Strasbourg, Mr. Draghi noted that "The euro area recovery continues to proceed at a moderate, but steady, pace. It has shown remarkable resilience to adverse developments and uncertainties emanating from the global environment." said that Europe needs to respond "cohesively and decisively" to the current challenges facing Europe. Overall, Mr. Draghi maintained a neutral tone and he is not prepared at this stage to offer strong hints over the likely policy action at December's policy meeting. There were also no attempts to steamroller the ECB Council into policy action. The stated above comments will maintain expectations that the ECB is not planning to announce some form of bond-buying extension, although the details are still in discussion. In the meantime, reaction to the speech was limited as markets remained in a consolidation phase with EUR/USD finding support just below the 1.0600 level.
Upcoming fundamentals: Bullard & Dudley speak, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Following the shock wave stemming from the Italian vote, some more market shakers could come along on Monday. Dudley's and Bullard's speeches will come at 13:30 GMT and 19:05 GMT respectively, with more uncertainty at 15:00 GMT when the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data is announced.
Gold loses battle for safe haven status against the Dollar
Daily chart: Gold respected the upper bound of the month-long hourly channel with a red candle, after it opened above the short-term channel trend-line at 1,181.73. The XAU/USD exchange rate could be attempting to re-enter the broken channel to test the latest resistance at 1,170.54. While bearish momentum prevails, we look for the losses to be ultimately cut at 1,158.87 where the 4-month trend-line turned channel is bound to take over the trend and could send the pair skyrocketing towards the upper trend-line of the senior channel.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The pair is attempting to re-enter the junior weekly channel with an extensive slide, approaching the senior downtrend in record speed. With various time-frame SMA pressuring the Bullion down, it might even gain enough momentum to question the relevance of the significant trend-line. Dashing through the bottom Bollinger Band with little supply, XAU/USD will need to stabilize, in order to see any credible technical signals.
Hourly chart
SWFX sentiment slightly softens
OANDA traders have slightly increased their bullish outlook on gold, as 78.06% of open positions were long on Monday, compared to 75.49% on Friday. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank seem to have roughly preserved their previous sentiment, as Monday showed 63.80 % of traders betting the metal will surge, compared to 64.68% during the previous session.