- 60% of all SWFX open positions are short
- Markets are expecting Friday's information from the Jackson Hole Symposium
- Prices fluctuated around the 1,340 level since August 4
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US GDP Annualized (Q2); US PCE Annualized (Q2); US International Trade in Goods (July); Fed's Yellen Speaks; UoM Confidence Final (August);
New orders for US manufactured capital goods climbed in July for a second month, fresh figures revealed on Thursday. According to the Department of Commerce, demand for all durable goods rose 4.4% in the reported month, the highest reading since October 2015. Market analysts expected US orders for long-lasting goods to increase 3.4% in July, following last month's 3.9% upwardly revised drop. Excluding transport, orders jumped 1.5% in the same month, compared to June's 0.4% upwardly revised decline and surpassing the 0.4% market forecast. The gain in overall durable goods orders was mainly driven by a 10.5% rise in demand transportation equipment. Orders for civilian aircraft, which are extremely volatile month to month, advanced 89.9% in July, while orders for automobiles remained flat. Meanwhile, the rise in core durable goods orders follows an increase in oil and gas drilling activity. Other data released on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped to 261,000 in the week ending August 20, following last week's 262,000 claims. Economic desks penciled in a slight acceleration to 265,000 in the reported period. This marks 77 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1973. The four-week moving average fell to 264,000 from 265,250 seen in the previous seven days.
Existing home sales in the United States dropped more than expected last month after rising for four consecutive months, official figures revealed on Wednesday. According to the National Association of Realtors, sales fell 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.39 million units in July, compared to the preceding month's reading of 5.57 million, whereas market analysts anticipated a 0.3% decline to 5.52 million in the reported month. US home resales were 1.6% lower than a year earlier. Nevertheless, analysts view the drop in existing home sales as temporary and expect these sales to pick up soon. Home resales declined in the Northeast, the South and the Midwest; however, jumped 2.5% in the West. Meanwhile, the number of unsold homes on the market increased 0.9% in the seventh month of the year, whereas supply fell 5.8% and the median house price advanced 5.3% year-over-year to $244,100. Other data released by the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed a surprise increase in US crude oil inventories. According to the report, US crude stockpiles added 2.5 million barrels in the week ended August 19, following the 2.5% drop seen in the previous seven weeks and surpassing the 0.5 million-barrel fall forecast. After the release, Brent oil declined 1.5% and WTI dropped 1.8%, both trading below the $50 level.
Upcoming fundamentals: US data and Jackson Hole Symposium
Friday is a busy day for traders, as a lot of US data will be released and it is the second day of the symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Traders have to look out for a combined US data release at 12:30 GMT, when the US GDP and PCE will be released for second quarter and the US International Trade in Goods for July will be out. Afterwards at 14:00 GMT the Fed's chairwoman Janet Yellen will give a speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. At the same time the UoM Confidence Final index will be out for August.
Gold remains squeezed in on Friday
Daily chart: The yellow metal changed direction on early Friday morning, as it found support in the second weekly support level at 1,322.62, and the metal is most likely to surge to the 55-day SMA at 1,328.15. Previously gold fluctuated around these two levels, as the commodity finds support in the weekly S2 and in the meantime is not capable of breaking the 55-day SMA. The bullion got squeezed in between these two levels on Wednesday, as the metal fell to the weekly S2.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart for gold shows, that it was not only the weekly S2, which stopped the fall on Thursday morning, as the lower Bollinger band provided additional support. And the fall was stopped only when the lower Bollinger band came together with the weekly S2. Afterwards the rate fluctuated below the second weekly support until it broke out of it at 00:00 GMT, and the bullion surged since then without pausing.
Hourly chart
SWFX traders are neutral bearish on Friday
Meanwhile, OANDA Bank clients are bullish with respect to the bullion, precisely in 65.05%. In the meantime, SAXO bank clients are less bullish on the yellow metal, as 63.35% of positions are long.