- 52% of all SWFX open positions are short
- Prices fluctuate around the 1,340 level since August 4
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: All quiet at the start of the week.
Initial jobless claims posted a surprise fall, fresh data revealed on Thursday. According to the Department of Labor, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped to 262,000 in the week ended August 13, following the preceding week's reading of 266,000, whereas market analysts pencilled in a slight increase to 269,000 in the reported period. Four weeks ago, claims hit the 43- year low of 248,000 touched in mid-April. Last week's data marked the 76th consecutive week of initial jobless claims below the 300,000 level, the longest streak since 1973. Meanwhile, the fourweek moving average, considered a better measure of labour market trends, jumped 2,500 to 265,250 in the week ending August 13. Other data released on Thursday showed an unexpectedly large improvement of business activity in the US mid-Atlantic region. According to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's survey, the manufacturing activity index rose to 2.0 points in August, after dropping 2.9 in the preceding month, while economic desks anticipated an increase to 1.2 in the reported month. Furthermore, the survey's six-month outlook indicator grew to 45.8 in August from last month's 33.7, posting the highest reading since January 2015. The survey tracks business activity in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. The Philly Fed index is seen as one of the first monthly indicators of the health of the US economy.
US crude oil inventories dropped after three consecutive weeks of gains, fresh data showed on Wednesday. According to the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) weekly report, US oil stockpiles fell 2.5 million barrels in the week ended August 12, compared to the 1.1 million barrel upturn seen in the previous seven days, while market analysts anticipated a slight increase of 300,000 barrels in the reported period. Furthermore, the EIA reported that gasoline inventories dropped 2.7 million barrels in the same period, following the 2.8 million barrel decline seen previously, whereas markets pencilled in a decrease of 1.5 million barrels. Meanwhile, distillate stockpiles rose 1.9 million barrels, after falling 2.0 million in the preceding week, while economic desks expected to see a 600,000 drop. On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a bigger-than-expected 1 million-barrel fall in US crude oil inventories and a 2.2 million climb in gasoline stockpiles for the week ending August 12. Oil prices rebounded from their lows they touched two weeks ago amid fresh talks by some OPEC members to restrain output at the September meeting in Algiers. Nevertheless, analysts remain sceptical, arguing that the OPEC cartel and non-OPEC countries will not reach an agreement at their upcoming meeting next month.
Upcoming fundamentals: All quiet on Monday
During Monday's trading session, yellow metal prices are not going to be affected by fundamental data releases, as there are no notable releases, which could affect the bullion.
XAU/USD trades below 1,335 on Monday
Daily chart: The yellow metal is falling, as it started to lose its value on Friday, when the metal fell from the height of 1,352 to 1,340 level. On Monday morning, gold managed to fall even more, as by 5:00 GMT the yellow metal traded at 1,333, and it had touched the newly formed weekly S1 at 1,331.76. However, it looks like the metal rebounded against the support line, as it had been surging in the past hours up to 5:00 GMT, and the daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a northward move for the pair during today's trading session.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart for gold shows that the yellow metal traded almost flat around 1,348 since midnight to 10:00 GMT on Friday, as the price was squeezed in by various resistances and supports, which have created a massive cluster from the level of 1,344.71 to 1,347.33. Around 11 GMT on Friday, the bullion sharply fell from 1,345 to 1,338.34 by 13:00 GMT, when it changed direction and surged to 1,346.67. That fall caused the Bollinger bands and the 20-hour SMA to move lower, which provided the necessary upward pressure for the metal to start slowly but surely falling, as it moved to the weekly S1 at 1,331.76 by 2:00 GMT on Monday.
Hourly chart
SWFX sentiment unchanged on Monday
Meanwhile, OANDA Bank clients are bullish with respect to the bullion, precisely in 66.02%. In the meantime, SAXO bank clients are less bullish on the yellow metal, as 58.32% of positions are long.