- 52% of all SWFX open positions are short
- Prices fluctuate around the 1,340 level since August 4
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: Baker Hughes US Rig Count Crude Oil (August 19)
Initial jobless claims posted a surprise fall, fresh data revealed on Thursday. According to the Department of Labor, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped to 262,000 in the week ended August 13, following the preceding week's reading of 266,000, whereas market analysts pencilled in a slight increase to 269,000 in the reported period. Four weeks ago, claims hit the 43- year low of 248,000 touched in mid-April. Last week's data marked the 76th consecutive week of initial jobless claims below the 300,000 level, the longest streak since 1973. Meanwhile, the fourweek moving average, considered a better measure of labour market trends, jumped 2,500 to 265,250 in the week ending August 13. Other data released on Thursday showed an unexpectedly large improvement of business activity in the US mid-Atlantic region. According to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's survey, the manufacturing activity index rose to 2.0 points in August, after dropping 2.9 in the preceding month, while economic desks anticipated an increase to 1.2 in the reported month. Furthermore, the survey's six-month outlook indicator grew to 45.8 in August from last month's 33.7, posting the highest reading since January 2015. The survey tracks business activity in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. The Philly Fed index is seen as one of the first monthly indicators of the health of the US economy.
US crude oil inventories dropped after three consecutive weeks of gains, fresh data showed on Wednesday. According to the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) weekly report, US oil stockpiles fell 2.5 million barrels in the week ended August 12, compared to the 1.1 million barrel upturn seen in the previous seven days, while market analysts anticipated a slight increase of 300,000 barrels in the reported period. Furthermore, the EIA reported that gasoline inventories dropped 2.7 million barrels in the same period, following the 2.8 million barrel decline seen previously, whereas markets pencilled in a decrease of 1.5 million barrels. Meanwhile, distillate stockpiles rose 1.9 million barrels, after falling 2.0 million in the preceding week, while economic desks expected to see a 600,000 drop. On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a bigger-than-expected 1 million-barrel fall in US crude oil inventories and a 2.2 million climb in gasoline stockpiles for the week ending August 12. Oil prices rebounded from their lows they touched two weeks ago amid fresh talks by some OPEC members to restrain output at the September meeting in Algiers. Nevertheless, analysts remain sceptical, arguing that the OPEC cartel and non-OPEC countries will not reach an agreement at their upcoming meeting next month.
Upcoming fundamentals: Oil rig count
Friday is a quiet day for the yellow metal, as no notable data affecting the US Dollar will be released. However, gold prices are in some cases highly affected by fluctuations in crude oil prices. The oil prices will be affected by the Baker Hughes US Rig Count Crude Oil number for August 19, which will be released at 17:00 GMT.
Gold retreats on Friday morning
Daily chart: The yellow metal did not manage to upkeep its surge on Friday, as the yellow metal bounced off the weekly R1 at 1,351.70 and moved to 1,349.50 by 5:30 GMT. Although, the metal had already found support in the monthly PP at 1.345.31 before 5:30 GMT, and daily aggregate indicators forecast a surge for it during today's trading session. Taking into account those facts, it is most likely, that the metal will soon resume to move northwards.Daily chart
Hourly chart: On the hourly chart it can be seen that, as gold was falling, the bullion found support in the 20-hour SMA at 1,349.21 at 9:00 GMT. Afterwards, the metal surged and tested the weekly R1 at 1,351.70 from 18:00 to 20:00 GMT. However, the yellow metal did not break the resistance and retreated to 1,347.11 by 1:00 GMT, around where it has remained since then.
Hourly chart
Traders remain bearish on Friday
Meanwhile, OANDA Bank clients are bullish with respect to the bullion, precisely in 61.51%. In the meantime, SAXO bank clients are less bullish on the yellow metal, as 58.54% of positions are long.