- 52% of all SWFX open positions are short
- Prices fell below 1,340 level on Thursday
- US Retail Sales made the metal surge for a short time
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US Empire State Manufacturing (August); NAHB Housing Market Index (August); Long-term TIC Net (June); Total TIC Net (June)
Sales at US retailers unexpectedly fell in July, official data revealed on Friday. According to the Department of Commerce, retail sales came at a seasonally adjusted 0.0% in the reported month, compared to the previous month's upwardly revised figure of 0.8%, while economic desks pencilled in a deceleration to 0.4%. Furthermore, core retail sales, excluding automobiles, dropped a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in the seventh month of the year, whereas the preceding month's gain was revised up to 0.9% from the originally reported increase of 0.7%, whereas analysts expected a decrease to 0.2%. Separate reported released by the Department of Labor on the same day showed that US producer prices returned to contraction in July after three months of consecutive growth, as the Producer Price Index dropped 0.2% on an annual basis in the reported month, following the 0.3% rise registered in July. Monthover-month, US factory gate inflation declined 0.4% in July, compared to the 0.5% gain seen in the preceding month, while market analysts anticipated a fall to 0.1% in the reported period. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey released on Friday showed that mood among US shoppers improved in August, as it preliminary Consumer Confidence Index rose to 90.4, compared to July's final print of 90.0, while markets predicted the Index to come in at 91.5 in the reported period.
According to the Labour Department Thursday's release, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits went down during the last week, figuring out that stable labour market strength in early August that could help speed up economic growth. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 266,000 in the August 6 week. Initial claims have been below the key 300,000 level for the past 75 weeks in a row, showing the longest streak since 1970 as well as did not depict any signs of rising. Meanwhile, economists polled by Reuters had forecast initial claims reaching the 265,000 mark in the latest week. Also, Labour Department highlights there were no special factors influencing last week's claims data and no states had been estimated. Moreover, summer usually brings turbulences in weekly figures due to the re-equipment of auto plants. However, this summer, weekly claims figures have been more or less consistent, around 270,000 or fewer for the past eight weeks. The another report showed the US natural gas futures plunged to a two-month low in North America, after data revealed that natural gas sup
Upcoming fundamentals: US economic indices and long term securities purchases
As the yellow metal is quoted in US Dollar, the Bucks strength will dictate the price of the metal during Monday's trading session. First will come the US Empire State Manufacturing index for August at 12:30 GMT, and it is forecasted to be at 1.99, which would indicate at a manufacturing activity increase in the New York State. Afterwards, the NAHB Housing Market Index for August will be out at 14:00 GMT, and the index is forecasted to be at 59, which also indicates at expansion of activity. Last but not least, the Long-term TIC Net for June will be published at 20:00 GMT, which is a complicated term form long term net purchases of US securities by foreigners or money incoming into the US economy through securities markets.
Gold trading around 1,340 on Monday
Daily chart: The yellow metal approached the resistance cluster made up of the weekly and monthly pivot points respectively at 1,340.78 and 1,345.31, as the metal's price was at 1,338.90 by 5:30 GMT. Gold will be pushed onto the resistance levels by the 20-day SMA, which was at 1,338.34 by 5:30 GMT and was set to move upwards together with the commodity. In the meantime, daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge for the metal during Monday's trading session. In addition, the newly calculated weekly aggregate indicators also forecast a surge for gold during this week.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart for gold shows that the yellow metal was trading almost flat just below the 100-hour SMA around the level of 1,340 at the start of Friday's trading session until US Retails Sales data was released at 12:30 GMT. On the release, the dollar fell, sending Gold into a surge past all the resistance levels, which it would face otherwise, as the metal surged from 1,339.93 to 1,356.33 during the hour from 12:00 to 13:00 GMT. The commodity remained around those level until it fell to 1,333.38 around 16:00 GMT. Since then the metal has slightly recovered, as it is approaching the newly formed weekly PP at 1,340.78, which is supported by the 55 and 100-hour SMAs respectively at 1,341.56 an 1,342.39.
Hourly chart
SWFX sentiment unchanged on Monday
Meanwhile, OANDA Bank clients are bullish with respect to the bullion, precisely in 64.22%. In the meantime, SAXO bank clients are less bullish on the yellow metal, as 60.30% of positions are long.