- SWFX market sentiment is 55% bearish
- Trader set up pending orders are 56% short
- Pair opened Thursday's session at the 1.1149 level
- Aggregate daily technical indicators bet EUR/USD will surge
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US Initial Jobless Claims (July 30); German Factory Orders (June)
US private companies added more jobs than expected in July, the ADP report revealed on Wednesday. Private sector firms in the United States created 179,000 new job places in the reported month, slightly up from the previous month's upwardly revised reading of 176,000, whereas economic desks anticipated a meagre decrease to 170,000 in the seventh month of the year. Business services contributed 59,000 new jobs in July, whereas financial services firm added 11,000 new jobs in the same month. Furthermore, the trade, transportation, and utilities industry added 29,000 new employees to the US labour market, while manufacturers created 4,000 new jobs in July. In the meantime, the construction sector subtracted 6,000 jobs in the reported month. Other data released on Tuesday showed that activity in the US nonmanufacturing sector dropped in July, as the ISM NonManufacturing Index fell 55.5 points, after rising to 56.5 in June, its 8-month high. Market analysts expected the indicator to come in at 56.1 in July. The EIA weekly report revealed that US crude oil inventories by 1.4 million barrels in the week ended July 29, after rising by 1.7 million barrels in the previous seven days. Analysts pencilled in a drop of 1. Million barrels in the reported period.
The Consumer Price Index in the Euro zone's largest economy, Germany, continued to rise in July, the third consecutive month of growth, the Federal Statistics Office revealed on Thursday, but remained comfortably below the target level. The flash estimate from Destatis showed that consumer prices in Europe's economic powerhouse increased 0.3% month-over-month on a non-seasonally adjusted basis in July, after rising 0.1% in the previous month, while market analysts penciled in an acceleration to 0.2% in the seventh month of the year. On annual basis, the CPI climbed 0.4% in the same month, up from last month's final reading of 0.3%. In the meantime, the German Unemployment Change report published by the German Statistics Office on Thursday revealed that the unemployment rate in the country remained at 6.1% in July, whereas the number of unemployed people in the Euro zone's number one economy dropped by 7,000 in the reported month, compared to a fall of 6,000 registered in the preceding month, while economic desks anticipated a decline of 3,000 in July. The jobless rate in Germany stayed at the lowest level in the last 20 years. The European Central Bank aims to maintain inflation rates of below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.
Upcoming fundamentals: US employment and German factory orders
The next 24 hours will be very calm to the EUR/USD pair, as the currency exchange rate will be affected by only two fundamental data releases during Thursday and on early Friday morning. On Thursday at 12:30 GMT the US Initial Jobless Claims will be published, and they are forecasted to be exactly like the previously released number of 266,000. On early Friday morning keep your eyes on Germany, as change in German Factory Orders for June will be released, and the data will be in two forms, month-to-month and annualized.
EUR/USD below 1.1150 on Thursday
Daily chart: The common European currency depreciated against the US Dollar on Wednesday, as it stopped its previous surge and dropped to 1.1149 by the end of day's trading session. On Thursday morning, the currency exchange rate tried to move northwards. However, the pair was stopped by the 55-day SMA at 1.1156, and, afterwards, it moved slightly lower, as the exchange rate was located at 1.1145 by 5:00 GMT. In general, the signals are mixed on the pair today, as daily aggregate technical indicators forecast, that the pair will surge, which would be hindered by the 55-day SMA.Daily chart
Hourly chart: On the hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair it can be seen that the currency exchange rate fell from 7:00 GMT until 18:00 GMT on Wednesday, without struggling at all with support levels as the 20, 55 and 100-hour SMAs and the lower Bollinger band. Since then the currency pair has been trading flat at the level it reached before, which is just below 1.1150.
Hourly chart
SWFX traders bearish on Thursday
OANDA trader bearish sentiment has slightly increased compared to Wednesday's 6101%, as, at the moment, 61.90% of OANDA open positions are short. In the meantime, SAXO Bank clients have decreased their bearish stance, as their open short positions are now at 65.37% compared to 68.55% of last trading session.