- 50% of all SWFX open positions are bullish, as the sentiment became neutral on Friday
- Prices fluctuating below 1,340 level on Friday morning
- Gold is not setting a clear direction
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US GDP Annualized (Q2); US PCE Annualized (Q2); US Employment Cost Index (Q2); US GDP Price Index Annualized (Q2); US Fed's Williams Speech; Chicago PMI (July); UoM Confidence Final (July)
The number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States last week rose more than expected, fresh figures from the Department of Labor revealed on Thursday. Initial jobless claims grew by 14,000 to 266,000 in the week ended July 23, compared to the previous week's revised figure of 252,000, while market analysts expected jobless claims to rise by 9,000 to 261,000 in the reported week. Nevertheless, the less volatile and closely watched four-week moving average fell 1,000 to 256,500 in the preceding week, the lowest level since April. Furthermore, this week marked the 73rd consecutive week of initial jobless claims remaining below the 300,000 level, the longest streak since 1973. Meanwhile, the number of people continuing to receive unemployment aid increased by 7,000 to 2.14 million in the week ended July 16, whereas the four-week average of continuing jobless claims dropped to the lowest level since November 2000. The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday that conditions in the US labor market improved significantly and that the latest indicators pointed to some increase in labor utilization. As markets expected, the US central bank left its key interest rates unchanged at its meeting on July 27, citing concerns over low inflation.
For the second consecutive month, orders for long lasting factory goods made in the United States fell, fresh figures from the US Census Bureau revealed on Wednesday. Excluding transportation equipment, new orders for durable goods fell 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis in June, compared to the previous month's downwardly revised drop of 0.4%, whereas market analysts expected core durable goods orders to advance 0.3% in the reported month. Overall orders for US manufactured durable goods decreased 4.0% in June, following last month's revised fall of 2.3% and falling behind the 1.1% drop forecast. Other data released by the Energy Information Association on Wednesday showed that US crude oil inventories added 1.7 million barrels in the week ended July 22, after the 2.3 million barrel fall registered in the previous seven days, while economic desks penciled in a decrease of 2.1 million barrels in the reported period. The durable orders report stands in contrast to other recent data suggesting the US manufacturing sector stabilized in June. A Federal Reserve report showed manufacturing output was modestly above year-earlier levels in June..
Upcoming fundamentals: US second quarter data
Starting with the afternoon, data from the United States will begin incoming, as first at 12:30 the US annualized GDP, PCE, and employment cost index and annualized GDP price index will all be released for the second quarter. Later on Fed's Williams will give a speech at 13:30 GMT, and fifteen minutes later, at 13:45 GMT, Chicago PMI for July will be published. Last but not least, UoM Confidence Final index will be out for July.
Gold continues to fluctuate around 1,340 level on Friday
Daily chart: As it was stated yesterday, all what the FOMC announcement achieved was a movement of gold price fluctuation by 20 US dollars northwards. On Friday morning, the yellow metal continues to fluctuate around the 1,340 level, as there is no clear direction for it. By 5:00 GMT the metal was volatile between 1,328.50 and 1,343.80, and it was trading at 1,336.20. However, the fluctuation might be explained by the fact that the bullion is located exactly below the weekly R1 at 1,336.44, against which it struggles every time a direction starts to form.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart shows that the yellow metal was bouncing back and forth between the upper Bollinger band and the weekly R1 at 1,336.44, which is also supported by the 20-hour SMA. The metal did drop below the weekly R1 at 15:00 GMT. However, gold found support in the lower Bollinger band and moved back up passing the first weekly resistance. Although, the metal dropped below the support line once more at 6:00 GMT. In the meantime, daily aggregate technical indicators forecast no changes for the metal today.
Hourly chart
SWFX sentiment neutral on Friday
Meanwhile, OANDA Bank clients are largely bullish with respect to the bullion, precisely in 66.09%. In the meantime, SAXO bank clients are less bullish on the yellow metal, as 59.95% of positions are long.