- 64% of all pending orders are to acquire the Sterling
- 56% of traders are long the British Pound
- The nearest resistance is located around 1.41
- Support is around 1.39
- 51% of traders reckon GBP/USD will be at 1.46 or higher in three months
- Upcoming events: BoE Governor Carney Speech, US Durable and Core Durable Goods Orders, US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
As reported by the US Census Bureau, there were 1.164 million constructions of residential buildings The UK Public Sector Net Borrowing figure improved with the latest release, which showed that the borrowing was at £9.7 billion in May, beating the £9.35bn forecast. Moreover, the April's data was also revised up to £8.2 billion from the initial £6.58 billion, meaning that it was significantly worse than first thought. An increase in the deficit has been detected mostly due to higher government spending, which rose to £56 billion, while central government investment rose up to 2.8%, followed by an increase in debt interest to 16.7%. There was also a downward revision to net borrowing in the preceding year, namely down to £74.9 billion, down £16.7 billion in comparison to the year before that, as reported by the Office for National Statistics.
Nevertheless, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility's March budget review, this figure is still above their target of £72.2 billion. The OBR also kept revising its medium-term forecasts, amid the government receipts failing to meet expectations, with them anticipating the government to miss its surplus target only starting from 2019. Overall, debt keeps rising, excluding taxpayer-backed banks, which was equal to 83.7% of GDP at the end of May, or £1.6 trillion.
US Durable Goods Orders on the way
The EU referendum pretty much set the tone for the day, but there are still some fundamental events that could have an impact on the Cable today, namely the US Durable and Core Durable Goods Orders. The Durable Goods Orders are a measure of costs of orders, received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances. As those durable products often involve large investments, they are sensitive to the US economic situation. Core Durable Goods Orders, however, exclude the transport sector.
GBP/USD slips to historical low
Although the 23-month down-trend was pierced to the upside on Thursday, the ‘Brexit' poll results caused the Pound to plummet today, registering a 10% drop towards the lowest level in 30 years. At this point the question is whether the Sterling will be able to stabilise above the 1.36 major level or it will remain close to the 30-year low. There are some supports that could still limit the losses, but with the turmoil on the markets, the Cable's behaviour is too unpredictable. Nevertheless, a potential cluster is located around the 1.37 psychological level, formed by the weekly S3 and the 23.60% Fibo, while the overall bottom target is today's low of 1.3230.
Daily chart
On the hourly chart the Cable is seen piercing all current trend-lines, as well as falling beyond the 2009 low. Momentum appears to be growing, but the upside is to be limited, with the Pound most likely remaining below 1.40.
Hourly chart
Bears are now outnumbering the bulls
Today 56% of traders are long the British Pound, while 64% of all pending orders are to acquire the Sterling.
Compared to Thursday, there are also slightly more bears at OANDA - they take up 54% of the positions open with the Canada-based broker. Sentiment at Saxo Bank is still bearish, as here the number of bears exceeds the number of bulls by two percentage points.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Majority sees GBP/USD above 1.46 in three months
Exactly half of traders (51%) believe the British currency is to cost 1.46 or more dollars after a three-month period. The most popular price interval was selected by slightly less than a fifth (15%) of the voters, namely the 1.46-1.48 one, while the second most popular choice implies that the Sterling is to cost between 1.50 and 1.52 dollars in three months, chosen by 12% of the surveyed. At the same time, the mean forecast for Sep 24 is 1.453.
All in all, Community members, that took part in the survey last week, expect the pair to end this week at 1.46, with number of bears (25%) versus bulls (75%).
This week megajorko is bullish on the Cable. He said that "everyone is expecting the Brexit referendum this week so anything can happen to the cable including decline to 1.35 and total rocket jump to 1.60."
At the same time, some traders expect the UK to vote to leave the EU, therefore, for the Sterling to weaken by week's end. "The Brexit referendum is approaching, thus everything will become clear on Thursday", he commented.