- Pending orders are divided equally between bulls and bears
- Long open positions are unchanged at 44%
- Bulls set eyes on 1.15; 2005 low at 1.1637 comes next
- Strongest resistance is placed at 1.1409/66
- Economic events to watch in the next 24 hours: German Retail Sales (Jul); Italian Retail Sales (Jun) and CPI (Aug); Euro zone CPI (Aug), US Chicago PMI (Aug)
Greece's economy surprisingly grew both on an annual and quarterly basis in the second quarter, escaping technical recession, whereas unhealthy high unemployment, deep deflation and political woes were expected to take a toll on the debt-stricken country's economy. Greece's GDP rose 0.9% on a quarterly basis after a revised flat 0.0% growth in the beginning of the year. Measured on an annual basis, the Greek economy expanded 1.7% compared with a modest 0.2% rise seen previously.
The nation's economy is predicted to contract 2.3% in 2015 as the third quarter has been particularly harsh due to bank closures and capital controls. Officials estimate GDP to shrink 1.3% next year, citing the latest numbers of the creditor institutions that have been negotiating Greece's new bailout scheme, including the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Only in 2017 the country's economy is expected to return to growth, adding 2.7% that year followed by a robust 3.1% expansion a year later.
Upcoming fundamentals: Euro zone inflation to remain weak amid oil prices
The Euro area's inflation gauge will be published today at 9:00 GMT, while analysts project the annual consumer price indicator to weaken from 0.2% to 0.1% in August. Core inflation is in turn expected to stay at 1% year-on-year. Meanwhile, German retail sales are forecasted to rebound by 1% in July a monthly basis, after a substantial 2.3% drop a month before.
EUR/USD to recover Friday losses
EUR/USD increased pressure on bulls as it decided to retreat below the monthly R1 at 1.1196 on Friday. However, an immediate recovery above this important support during the weekend and on Monday is raising hopes a recovery will take place in the nearest future. At first, the common currency is required to consolidate above the Aug 28 opening price of 1.1242, while the next resistance is represented by the same day's high at 1.1309. Meanwhile, additional demand is also created by the 20-day SMA, currently at 1.1215, as well as strongly bullish daily technical indicators.Daily chart
A decline of EUR/USD, which occurred on Friday, has pushed the currency pair away from the channel up pattern confirmed in the one-hour chart. Moreover, a current revival is failing reach at least the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1295. In addition, bearish fears are reinforced by the fact the pair is hovering below 200-hour SMA.
Hourly chart
SWFX sentiment remains bearish, while pending orders show neutral distribution
The share of bullish positions at OANDA is 47.27% (+5%) at the moment, while SAXO Bank market participants are also remaining strongly pessimistic towards the common currency, with their portion of longs taking up only 37% of all open trades on Monday, August 31.