- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot are bullish (54% long / 46% short)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.1360
- At the same time, the closest support is currently placed at 1.1340
- Upcoming events on June 22: US Existing Home Sales (May)
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The International Monetary Fund said Greece will not be given extra time to meet its financial obligations, if it fails to make a repayment on June 30. Christine Lagarde, the IMF Managing Director, whose policies were named "criminal" last week by Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, said that Greece will immediately be considered in default unless it pays 1.5 billion euros due to the lender of last resort on June 30.
Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said a deal with Greece is still possible if the Greek government proceeds with the economic-reform pledges made to creditors. At the same time, as Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras headed to an economic forum in St. Petersburg, where he will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen warned of an spillover effect if a deal is not reached with Greece. Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem said that the Euro zone's November 2012 offer to consider debt relief if Greece meets the terms of its bailout remains valid.
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US existing home sales are due on Monday
The only fundamental release from either the Euro zone or US is going to be connected with the housing market the next Monday. The data on existing sales in the world's largest economy in May is expected by 12:30 PM GMT, while the current expectation stays at 5.25 million homes sold, up from 5.04 million in April.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD likely to lose value, trading range to narrow down
Judging from EUR/USD's developments that took place since May of the previous year, the pair is clearly trading downwards on a long-term chart. At the same time, it seems that now the pair is being bounded between the 2014 low and long-term downtrend line, meaning that it is currently hovering inside the descending triangle pattern. Moreover, this pattern implies a narrowing trading range, while the break-out point can be reached by the end of August. In the medium-term the common European currency may surge up to the 1.1330 mark where long-term downtrend is able to push the cross back in the direction of 1.05-1.10 area. However, the pair can also assume a possibility of growing as high as 200-day SMA around five figures above the downtrend, before finally making a decision to commence a bearish correction.Daily chart
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After erasing the long-term downtrend line around 1.1340, the EUR/USD pair moved further to the upside and pierced through the next major resistance represented by the Jun 10 high at 1.1385. Eventually, gains were extended above the weekly R1 to 1.1438, which is the highest level for the Euro/Dollar since May 18. Meanwhile, both daily and weekly indicators are now bullish, meaning that we may observe new highs in the medium-term, with the most realistic target being the May high at 1.1467.
Hourly chart
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EUR/USD sentiment drops for first time in ten days
Meanwhile, pending orders to buy or sell the Euro against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot price remain mainly on the positive side, but the bullish share decreased from 60% to 54% yesterday.
It proclaims that in case the EUR/USD rises in value, the pair's near-term gains can be prolonged as high as the May 2015 high at 1.1467. On the other hand, a downward development of the Euro is likely to be limited by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1294.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community suggests the Euro will show mixed performance against the US Dollar this week
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STARLINE, one of the community members participating in the survey, motivates his bearish outlook towards the single currency by saying that "Despite the positive data from the US, the Euro is trying to maintain the bullish trend, still testing the support line at 1.1200. If you resist the decline in the short term we could see an attempt to test the resistance at 1.1470."
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between May 19 and Jun 19 expect, on average, to see the currency pair around 1.10 by the end of September. Though the majority of participants, namely 59% of them, believe the exchange rate will trade below this mark this level in ninety days, with 29% alone seeing it below 1.06. Alongside, only 15% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.10 and 1.16 by the end of September of this year.
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