- Opened positions on Gold remain strongly positive (73% bullish / 27% bearish)
- The closest resistance for the yellow metal is currently located at 1,188
- At the same time, the closest support for the bullion is placed at 1,177
- Upcoming events on May 13: France GDP (Q1), Germany GDP (Q1) and CPI (Apr), Italy GDP (Q1), Euro zone GDP (Q1) and Industrial Production (Mar), ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, US Retail Sales (Apr), UK Claimant Count Change (Apr) and Unemployment Rate (3M-Mar), Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report
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Gold remained below the key $1,200 level on Tuesday, undermined by a strong US Dollar and lack of investors' interest in safe-haven assets amid slow progress of solving the Greek debt crisis. Greece alleviated immediate fears of a default by making a crucial 750 million euro payment to the International Monetary Fund.
Meanwhile, Eurogroup appreciated some progress in talks on cash-for-reform between the Greek government and its lenders including the IMF, the European Commission and the ECB. Yet, Euro zone finance ministers acknowledged that more efforts should be made to strike a deal.
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UK labour market data to reveal decreasing joblessness in March
Judging from average analysts' expectations, labour market statistics in Britain should remain strong, as tomorrow the data on jobless claims is going to be announced. Besides that, Euro area's GDP has probably surged 0.5% in the first quarter of 2015, while US retail sales are estimated to have risen by 0.2% last month.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
XAU/USD develops inside bearish wedge pattern on daily chart
Since the second quarter of 2013, the bullion has been developing inside the falling wedge pattern, meaning that trading range is decreasing as time goes on. In March 2014, however, the yellow metal resumed gaining value, even without touching the lower trend-line, at that time located around 1,150. Towards the end of June gains are likely to be limited and the bullion should be driven by the 200-day SMA around 1,220 with a slight bearish bias. Eventually, bears are forecasted to overtake a lead and drive the metal back to the south. The overall negative trend for Gold seems to be the case in the long-term future, while at the end of this year the precious metal is likely to consolidate around 1,150, if the present trend persists.Daily chart
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There are few signs that XAU/USD is preparing to move strongly in any direction in the short-term. The precious metal is broadly hovering between weekly PP and weekly S1 at 1,188 and 1,177, respectively. Technical indicators assume the bullion is more likely to lose value both in the medium-term. However, Gold prices should consolidate below the May 1 low at 1,170 in order to confirm its bearish intentions. A close below the monthly S1 (1,164), in turn, will open an opportunity for even steeper decline in the direction of 1,145.
Hourly chart
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SWFX opened positions on Gold remain strongly positive
Meanwhile, OANDA's bulls continue to enjoy a stable majority, and their share of total opened positions reached 68.19% in the morning today. Gold's sentiment at OANDA is currently the third most positive among all major currency pairs. Saxo Bank market participants, from their side, are also optimistic with respect to the precious metal, as there are 60% of bullish positions registered by 5:30am GMT on May 12.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on XAU/USD between Apr 12 and May 12 expect, on average, to see Gold trading around 1,200 by the end of August. At the same time, 54% of them still believe the bullion will be above this mark in three months, while 26% of traders surveyed forecast the bullion to trade in the range between 1,050 and 1,200.
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