- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range are negative (42% bullish / 58% bearish)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.0759
- At the same time, the closest support is currently placed at 1.0724
- Upcoming events on April 23: Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (May) and Manufacturing/Services PMI (Apr), Euro zone Manufacturing/Services PMI (Apr), US Manufacturing PMI (Apr) and New Home Sales (Mar)
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German investors remained optimistic in April, even though sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated. The ZEW indicator of economic expectations declined to 53.3 in April from 54.8 in the preceding month, marking the first decline since October 2014. However, the gauge of current conditions surged to 70.2 points in the measured month, up from 55.1 in March, overshooting forecast for 56.0.
In the latest World Economic Outlook the IMF revised its growth projections for Germany upwards, saying the economy is now expected to expand 1.6% this year and 1.7% in 2016. Falling oil prices, lower interest rates, as well as Euro depreciation, and the shift to a broadly neutral fiscal stance are estimated to boost activity in the coming years.
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Monthly PMI data to be released on Thursday
After plenty of different economic data from both the Euro zone and US on Wednesday, the next working day is estimated to remain in shadow, with no major EUR/USD's drivers expected to be published. Among only news, Italy will release its numbers on trade balance for February, which will be later followed by US statistics on property and labour markets for March.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD likely to lose value with growing trading range
Judging from EUR/USD's developments that took place since July of the previous year, the pair is clearly trading downwards with a significant negative slope. At the same time, mid-March movements of the Euro have also confirmed a widening trading range of this currency pair, meaning it is currently hovering inside the broadening falling wedge pattern. By the end of June, the common European currency may surge up to the 1.13 mark where 100-day SMA and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement will most probably push the cross back in the direction of 1-1.05 area. In the meantime, the Euro may hit 1:1 against the US Dollar as soon as September-October. However, a presence of dense zone of technical levels may also considerably influence the time-frame for this important event.Daily chart
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Despite movements in the range between 1.0660 and 1.0770 on Tuesday, EUR/USD posted completely no daily changes in its price. Both opening and closing levels remained just below the 2003 low at 1.0737. The overall short-term outlook for this currency pair remains bearish, as long as the Euro is below monthly PP at 1.0811. For bearish intentions to be confirmed, the pair should erase the 1.0650 mark, enough to refocus on a continuous down-trend in the medium-term with a target at 2015 low (1.0461).
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
EUR/USD sentiment and pending orders stay negative
On the other hand, pending orders to buy the Euro against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot advanced back six percentage points from yesterday to reach 42%. It proclaims that in case the EUR/USD rises in value, the pair's potential rebound can be limited by the monthly PP at 1.0811. On the other hand, a downward development of the Euro is assumed to be extended down to weekly S1 at 1.06.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community is waiting for the Euro to trade mostly sideways this week
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Read More: Community Forecasts
Likerty, one of the community members participating in the survey, motivates his bullish outlook towards the common currency by saying that "the Euro still could test 1.0710/690 before taking higher." On the other hand, Daytrader21 is more bearish on the Euro. He points out that there is going to be "a range-bound action with resistance standing at 1.0800 and support at previous week's low around 1.0400 level."
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Mar 22 and Apr 22 expect, on average, to see the currency pair around 1.07 by the end of July. Though the majority of participants, namely 51% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop even below 1.06 in ninety days, with 26% alone seeing it below 1.02. Alongside, 23% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.06 and 1.12 by the end of July of this year.
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