- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range are negative (46% bullish / 54% bearish)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.0735
- At the same time, the closest support is currently placed at 1.0518
- Upcoming events on April 16: Italy Trade Balance (Feb), US Unemployment Claims (Apr 3) and Building Permits (Mar)
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The Euro zone industrial production increased markedly more than expected in February, reinforcing the view the ECB's massive stimulus measures are already bearing fruit. According to Eurostat, industrial output in 19 countries sharing the Euro soared 1.1% month-on-month, marking the biggest monthly gain in 10 months. Economists, however, had expected a 0.4% increase. Measured on an annual basis, industrial production rose 1.6%.
Meanwhile, the ECB's quarterly bank lending survey showed its asset-buying programme is boosting credit in the Euro area. Commercial banks are using the funds to make new loans, while credit standards to private enterprises are predicted to continue to ease. Additionally, the report showed that there was a dramatic increase in the number of banks that now foresee demand for corporate loans to rise in the second quarter.
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US jobless claims, housing starts to be announced tomorrow
After plenty of different economic data from both the Euro zone and US on Wednesday, the next working day is estimated to remain in shadow, with no major EUR/USD's drivers expected to be published. Among only news, Italy will release its numbers on trade balance for February, which will be later followed by US statistics on property and labour markets for March.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD likely to lose value with growing trading range
Judging from EUR/USD's developments that took place since July of the previous year, the pair is clearly trading downwards with a significant negative slope. At the same time, mid-March movements of the Euro have also confirmed a widening trading range of this currency pair, meaning it is currently hovering inside the broadening falling wedge pattern. By the end of April, the common European currency is expected to surge up to the 1.17 mark where 2005 low and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement will most probably push the cross back in the direction of 1-1.05 area. In the meantime, the Euro may hit 1:1 against the US Dollar as soon as by the end of July 2015. However, a presence of dense zone of technical levels may also considerably influence the time-frame for this important event.Daily chart
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After a third unsuccessful attempt to breach the lower Bollinger band at 1.0550 to the downside, the pair decided to change direction of its development and turned attention to the closest resistance at 1.0735 (weekly PP). However, considering a 200-pip gap until that mark, EUR/USD managed to advance just up to 1.0650 on Tuesday. Judging from technical indicators, which are still fairly bearish on all time-frames, the yesterday's rebound was temporary and the Euro should resume falling in the near-term, with the medium-term target at 2015 low (1.0461).
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
EUR/USD sentiment remains above 50%, pending orders stay negative
On the other hand, pending orders to buy the Euro against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot rebounded even more from yesterday, but are still remaining below the neutral level at 46%. It proclaims that in case the EUR/USD rises in value, the pair's potential rebound can be limited by the weekly PP at 1.0735. On the other hand, a downward development of the Euro is assumed to be extended below this year's low at 1.0461.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community is waiting for the Euro to resume declining this week
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Read More: Community Forecasts
aslamhammad, one of the community members participating in the survey, motivates his bearish outlook towards the common currency by saying that "the ECB plans to keep interest rates low. Therefore, I am expecting to see EUR/USD exchange rate lower on Friday April 17."
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Mar 15 and Apr 15 expect, on average, to see the currency pair around 1.07 by the end of July. Though the majority of participants, namely 54% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop even below 1.06 in ninety days, with 27% alone seeing it below 1.02. Alongside, 21% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.06 and 1.12 by the end of July of this year.
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