- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range are negative (44% bullish / 56% bearish)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.0735
- At the same time, the closest support is currently placed at 1.0516
- Upcoming events on April 15: Germany and France CPI (Mar), Euro zone Trade Balance (Feb), ECB Interest Rate Decision
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European Central Bank officials meeting on Wednesday will consider possible further emergency funding for Greece's banks. Thus, Athens has time until the middle of this week to revise its package of reforms required for the release of Euro zone loans that it desperately needs to stay afloat. Greece paid a 450 million euros loan repayment due to the IMF last week. However, it is obliged to pay more in the coming weeks and months, and analysts are worried the country will not be able to meet repayments.
It needs to pay out more than 1.5 billion euros of social security payments for April this week, as well as a further 747 million euros payment is due on 12 May. Greece has been on the edge of bankruptcy since 2009 and has asked for rescue loans totalling 240 billion euros from the EU and IMF.
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ECB to make interest rate decision on Wednesday
Tomorrow, the European Central Bank's Governing Council is gathering together in Frankfurt for a scheduled monetary policy meeting. Even though no changes to the policy stance are expected at the moment, this event is still marked with high influence and importance levels, meaning that market will watch it closely. Moreover, even stronger attention will most probably be paid, as usually, to the press-conference of Mario Draghi, the ECB President.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD likely to lose value with growing trading range
Judging from EUR/USD's developments that took place since July of the previous year, the pair is clearly trading downwards with a significant negative slope. At the same time, mid-March movements of the Euro have also confirmed a widening trading range of this currency pair, meaning it is currently hovering inside the broadening falling wedge pattern. By the end of April, the common European currency is expected to surge up to the 1.17 mark where 2005 low and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement will most probably push the cross back in the direction of 1-1.05 area. In the meantime, the Euro may hit 1:1 against the US Dollar as soon as by the end of July 2015. However, a presence of dense zone of technical levels may also considerably influence the time-frame for this important event.Daily chart
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Despite falling for a sixth day in a row, the common currency failed to drop beyond the Bollinger band at 1.0550 on Monday. Meanwhile, it has been a second attempt to breach this support level. Overall, EUR/USD went marginally to the south during past 24 hours and broadly remained range bound between 1.0550 and 1.06. Technical indicators are currently completely unchanged from the first working day of this week, with daily studies being mixed and weekly ones sending bearish signals. In case the pair crosses 1.05 on Tuesday, it is going to target the weekly S1 at 1.0434 next.
Hourly chart
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EUR/USD sentiment remains above 50%, pending orders stay negative
On the other hand, pending orders to buy the Euro against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot rebounded considerably from yesterday but are still remaining below neutral at 44%. It proclaims that in case the EUR/USD rises in value, the pair's potential rebound can be limited by the weekly PP at 1.0735. On the other hand, a downward development of the Euro is assumed to be extended below this year's low at 1.0461.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Mar 14 and Apr 14 expect, on average, to see the currency pair at 1.07 by the end of July. Though the majority of participants, namely 54% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop even below 1.06 in ninety days, with 27% alone seeing it below 1.02. Alongside, 22% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.06 and 1.12 by the end of July of this year.
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