- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range are negative (38% bullish / 62% bearish)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.0780
- At the same time, the closest support is currently placed at 1.0759
- Upcoming events on April 10: France Industrial Output (Feb) and Budget Balance (Feb), US Monthly Budget Statement (Mar)
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Euro zone retail sales declined in February following four consecutive monthly rises, a sign that the boost to the spending power of households from falling oil prices may be fading away. Eurostat reported that retail sales in 19 countries sharing the single currency slid 0.2% on a monthly basis translating into a 3.0% annual gain.
Retail sales are a bellwether for consumer demand, an important component of Euro zone's economic output, which is predicted to grow 0.3% on quarter in the first three months of 2015, up from 0.2% in the December quarter of 2014. The precipitous plunge in energy prices in the final months of last year left Euro zone consumers with more money to spend on other goods and services, underpinning households' confidence and spending.
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Several countries to publish their budget balance data on Friday
On April 10, two countries from both sides of the Atlantic Ocean are getting prepared to announce data on public finances. At first, France will publish its numbers for the month of February, while later the same indicator will be released by the United States for March. Meanwhile, in the US a budget shortfall is expected to decrease to $43 billion in March, down from $192 billion in the preceding month.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD likely to lose value with growing trading range
Judging from EUR/USD's developments that took place since July of the previous year, the pair is clearly trading downwards with a significant negative slope. At the same time, mid-March movements of the Euro have also confirmed a widening trading range of this currency pair, meaning it is currently hovering inside the broadening falling wedge pattern. By the end of April, the common European currency is expected to surge up to the 1.17 mark where 2005 low and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement will most probably push the cross back in the direction of 1-1.05 area. In the meantime, the Euro may hit 1:1 against the US Dollar as soon as by the end of July 2015. However, a presence of dense zone of technical levels may also considerably influence the time-frame for this important event.Daily chart
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On Wednesday, EUR/USD has mostly hovered just in between two important technical levels, including monthly PP and weekly S1. However, at some points of time the pair managed to surge up to a downtrend at 1.0890. Still, the Euro lost value for a third consecutive day and continues to under-perform the Buck on Thursday as well. If bears push the cross below the 2003 low at 1.0759, they will clear the way towards the next closest support, which is located as low as 1.0589 (weekly S2).
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
EUR/USD sentiment and pending orders are negative
On the other hand, pending orders to buy the Euro against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot plunged even further to reach just 38% today, thus accumulating a loss of 17% since Monday. It proclaims that in case the EUR/USD rises in value, the pair's potential rebound can be limited by the 20-day SMA at 1.0856. On the other hand, a downward development of the Euro is assumed to be extended down to 1.07.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community is waiting for the Euro to rebound considerably this week
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Read More: Community Forecasts
Mohands_moslim, one of the community members participating in the survey, motivates his bullish outlook towards the common currency by saying that "the EUR/USD is going to continue retracement up to 1.1244 and low at 1.10960." On the other hand, pipx has an opposite view on the situation, suggesting that "The EUR will continue to weaken and it might erase the gains which were made during the previous week."
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Mar 9 and Apr 9 expect, on average, to see the currency pair around 1.07 by the end of July. Though the majority of participants, namely 55% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop even below 1.06 in ninety days, with 30% alone seeing it below 1.02. Alongside, 19% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.06 and 1.12 by the end of July of this year.
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