- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range are positive (55% bullish / 45% bearish)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.0904
- At the same time, the closest support is currently placed at 1.0779
- Upcoming events on March 20: Euro zone current account (Jan)
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The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development revised upwards its 2015 growth outlook for the Euro zone amid the positive effect of low oil prices and ECB's stimulus. The think-tank now predicts the 19-nation currency bloc to expand 1.4% this year, up from the 1.1% growth expected in the previous estimate in November.
Looking ahead, the growth is now forecast to reach 2.0% next year, compared with 1.7% predicted in November. However, the OECD highlighted that the growth within the Euro area will remain extremely uneven. The Paris-based organization added budgetary measures should be more supportive of growth after years of consolidation in the Euro bloc.
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No important data to have impact on EUR/USD tomorrow
On the last day of this working week, the Eurostat is going to publish current account data for the monetary union in January. Besides that, Germany will release the producer price index for the second month of this year. However, this data altogether is unlikely to produce any major movements of the Euro-crosses on Friday. Meanwhile, US side is expected to be completely silent in terms of fundamental data tomorrow.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD set to weaken in the long-term
The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD currency pair is remaining bearish. On January 22, the ECB has made a long-awaited decision to expand its asset purchases by buying government bonds since March 9. The programme is likely to continue pushing the Euro downwards. Moreover, the lowest point in more than 12 years below 1.07 has already been hit by EUR/USD cross. Taking into account present monetary conditions and bearish outlook for the Euro, the pair has a chance to reach parity towards the end of June. Short-term bullish actions may take place, but their impact and size are still expected to be inappropriate for the common currency to commence a stable recovery in the medium-term. Moreover, some market participants suggest it may fall further and even trade below the parity in course of second half the year.Daily chart
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EUR/USD registered its fast surge since the year 2000, as substantial bearish development of US Dollar followed the Federal Reserve's statement on Wednesday. The pair erased six technical levels and used to trade above 1.10 at some point of time. Therefore, the highest daily increase amounted to more than 400 pips. However, the Euro returned slightly back and is currently supported by 2003 low around 1.08. Despite still bearish daily technical indicators, the common currency is unlikely to plunge significantly on Thursday.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
EUR/USD sentiment negative, pending orders surge above 50%
Additionally, pending orders to buy the Euro against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot surged considerably after the Euro gained value, to reach 55% in the morning on Thursday. It proclaims that in case the EUR/USD rises in value, the pair's potential rebound can be extended up to the monthly S2 at 1.0942. On the other hand, a potential downward development of the Euro is considered to be limited by the monthly S3 at 1.0709.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community is waiting for the Euro to decline this week
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Read More: Community Forecasts
rokasltu, one of the community members participating in the survey, motivates his bearish outlook towards the common currency by saying that "all pair's movements developments, during the next week will depend on FOMC statement." He also added that "a rate hike time table will not become more clear, thus I am expecting non-substantial retreat of the Euro."
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Feb 19 and Mar 19 expect, on average, to see the currency pair just below 1.10 by the end of June. Though the majority of participants, namely 56% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop down strongly below this level in ninety days, with 28% alone seeing it below 1.04. Alongside, 26% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.10 and 1.16 by the end of June of this year.
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