- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range are negative (33% bullish / 67% bearish)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.1417
- At the same time, the closest support is currently placed at 1.1366
- Upcoming events on February 21-23: Germany IFO Business Climate (Feb), US Existing Home Sales (Jan)
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Greece made a formal request to ask for a loan extension following two rounds of negotiation with its European creditors to ensure a financial lifeline to keep the country afloat in the coming months. Euro zone finance ministers will meet on Friday afternoon in Brussels to consider the request, the chairman of Eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem said. Athens had asked for an extension to its "Master Financial Assistance Facility Agreement" with the Euro zone.
Meanwhile, the ECB has released its first ever accounts of the January 22 meeting. The minutes showed that the Governing Council "broadly shared" the opinion that further actions were needed when members were making a decision to launch a controversial quantitative easing. The main concern appeared to be low inflation in the currency bloc.
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Monday to be broadly silent in terms of fundamental data releases
In the beginning of a new week the next Monday, IFO Institute is going to publish the business climate index for Euro zone's largest economy in February. The indicator is expected to improve both for current assessment and future expectations. On the US side, the National Association of Realtors will announce a number of existing home sales in the country for January of this year.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD set to weaken in the long-term
The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD currency pair is remaining bearish. On January 22, the ECB has made a long-awaited decision to expand its asset purchases which will continue pushing the Euro to the downside. Moreover, the lowest point since the year 2003 around 1.1113 has already been hit by EUR/USD cross. Taking into account present monetary conditions and bearish outlook for the Euro, the pair has a chance to go below 1.10 towards the end of the first quarter of this year. Short-term bullish actions may take place, but their impact and size are not expected to be appropriate for the common currency to commence a stable recovery in the long-run. Moreover, some market participants suggest it may fall further and even trade towards the parity in course of this year.Daily chart
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Despite the fact that the Euro tried to climb above the closest resistance in face of 20-day SMA for a second time in three days, it still failed to do so. As a result, EUR/USD was pushed below 1.14 toward the weekly PP at 1.1366. If the pair succeeds is consolidating below this support line, it will open the way down to the next demand area represented by weekly S1 / Bollinger band at 1.1291. Meanwhile, daily technical indicators are giving neutrals signals at the moment.
Hourly chart
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EUR/USD sentiment below 50%, pending orders remain pessimistic
On the other hand, SWFX pending orders to acquire the Euro against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot price are still in the minority, with only 33% of them registered in the morning on Friday, down eight percentage points. It proclaims that in case of pair's increase in price, its medium-term gains are likely to be limited by the monthly pivot point at 1.1496.
On the other hand, a potential decline of the Euro is considered to be possibly extended down to the Bollinger band at 1.1289.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community is waiting for the Euro to continue growing this week
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Read More: Community Forecasts
geula4x, one of the community members participating in the survey, motivates his bullish outlook towards the common currency by saying that "the EUR/USD pair seems slightly bullish on the daily chart. Price has tested 1.1100 area and bounced higher, while a recent support has been established around 1.1260 level." He also added that the closest resistance is located 1.1473 and "Let's see if bulls can push higher and break 1.1473 resistance for a move towards 1.1600."
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Jan 20 and Feb 20 expect, on average, to see the currency pair around 1.1250 by the end of May. Though the majority of participants, namely 55% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop down even below 1.12 in ninety days, with 30% alone seeing it below 1.08. Alongside, 21% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.12 and 1.18 by the end of May of this year.
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