- Pending orders in 100-pip range from the current market price are slightly negative (47% bullish / 53% bearish)
- In case the pair increases in price, the closest resistance for it is located at 1.1874
- The downward movement is possible as well, while for that purpose the closest support is placed at 1.1781
- Upcoming events on January 13: Italian Industrial Production, US 10-y Bond Auction and Monthly Budget Statement
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Industrial output in Germany unexpectedly fell in November, adding to signs that the recovery in the Euro zone's powerhouse remains fragile. Industrial production fell a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in the reported period, following a revised 0.6% growth in the preceding month, Destatis reported. On an annual basis, production declined 0.5% in November, compared with a revised 1.2% advance recorded in the previous month.
In the Euro zone' second biggest economy—France, industrial output also remained sluggish in November, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies. Factory production dropped 0.3% in November when measured on a monthly basis. Analysts, however, had expected a 0.3% rise. Measured on an annual basis, industrial output fell 2.6% in the reported period, compared to analysts' predictions of a 1.9% decline.
Watch More: Dukascopy TV
EUR/USD still to be influenced by US news on Tuesday
While Monday of this week is not supposed to bring any news from the Eurozone and only some minor data from North America, the second day of the week is likely to be almost the same in terms of potential drivers for EUR/USD pair. Among the only European data, Italy will publish numbers on industrial production in the country for November, which is still unlikely to have a significant impact on the Euro. Besides that, US authorities will release important data on federal budget balance in December, which is supposed to come positive.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD sets 2005 low as new long-term goal
The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD currency pair is remaining bearish both in short and long-term. Additionally, the cross has recently managed to reach the lowest point of the previous year at 1.2096, just before it ended on December 31. Moreover, in January the pair continued declining well-below the 1.20 major level. Taking into account the present situation and bearish outlook for the Euro, the pair is likely to drop down to 2005 low at 1.1639 in the medium-term, even though a short-term rebound up to 1.21 is not excluded. Moreover, analysts suggest that in case of Eurozone's QE later this year the single currency may fall further and trade towards 1.10.Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Following seven days of consecutive losses for EUR/USD, on Friday the pair managed to erase some of them, as a demand area around 1.18 pushed the Euro to the north. At the moment bulls are facing an obstacle represented by the weekly pivot point and 2010 low around 1.1860. If the pair overcomes this resistance, we may see EUR/USD increasing up to the monthly S1 at 1.1939. Despite that, medium and long-term outlooks for the pair still remain strongly negative at the moment.
Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Read More: Technical Analysis
Opened positions stay bullish at 51%, pending orders improve
Meanwhile, pending orders to acquire the single currency versus the US dollar surged considerably over the weekend, as the share of longs advanced to 47% (26% on Friday). It implies that, in case the pair increases in price, in the medium-term bearish pressure may stop the pair from climbing further around the 2010 low at 1.1939.
On the other hand, if the Euro declines, the losses may potentially extend down to weekly S1 at 1.1737 in the foreseeable future.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community expects Euro to fall further against US dollar
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Read More: Community Forecasts
Jignesh, one of the community members participating in the survey, motivates his bearish outlook towards the common currency by saying that the EUR/USD currency pair has recently managed to break a number of important support lines, including a monthly trend-line and 1.20 major level. He also adds that the "we may see a bit of a pull back to start the week but selling pressure should be strong."
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Dec 12 and Jan 12 expect, on average, to see the currency pair around 1.2150 by the end of April. Though only the minority of participants, namely 17% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop down to the 1.22/1.20 region in ninety days. On top of that, the 46% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade below 1.20 by the end of April of this year.
© Dukascopy Bank SA