- SWFX market sentiment is 56% bullish
- Trader pending orders are 60% to sell
- Pair opened Monday's session at 1.0441
- Upcoming Events: It is the second day of Christmas
New orders for US-made capital goods advanced more than expected in November due to strong demand for machinery and primary metals, suggesting some of the oil-related drag on manufacturing was starting to fade. According to the Commerce Department non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a went up 0.9% after an unrevised 0.2% gain in October. Moreover, there were increases in orders for electrical equipment, appliances and components, as well as computers and electronic products. A drop in oil prices last year, together with a surge in the dollar, pressured manufacturing. Much of the impact has been through weak business spending on equipment, which has contracted for four consecutive quarters. However, with oil prices hovering above $50 per barrel, manufacturing, which accounts for 12% of the US economy, is starting to perk up. In the meantime, the US economy soared at a faster pace last quarter than previously estimated, but the stronger gains only help bring the year's growth rate back in line with the long, sluggish expansion. According to the Commerce Department the US GDP expanded at an inflation- and seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.5% in the third quarter.
Existing home sales in the United States rose for the third consecutive month in November, surprising markets and hitting their highest level for almost a decade. According to the National Association of Realtors, home resales advanced 0.7% to an annualized rate of 5.61 million units in the reported period, following October's downwardly revised rate of 5.57 million, surpassing analysts' expectations for a slight decline of 1.0% to a 5.52 million-unit pace and reaching the highest since February 2007. On an annual basis, sales increased 15.4% in November. According to the latest data published by Freddie Mac, the fixed 30- year mortgage rate has climbed around 60% to an average rate of 4.16% since Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election. Moreover, mortgage rates are likely to go even higher after the Fed rose its key interest rate to 0.75% from 0.50% last week as well projected three more hikes in 2017. Separately, the Energy Information Administration announced on Wednesday a 2.3 million barrel increase in US crude oil inventories during the week ending December 16, while market analysts anticipated a decline of 2.4 million barrels, following the preceding week's 2.6 million barrel slip.
Everyone is on holiday
There are no data releases planned in the markets. The only exception are the Japanese, who released a batch of data at 11:30 GMT.
EUR/USD stuck between levels of significance
Daily Chart: The common European currency fluctuated between two levels of significance against the US Dollar on Monday morning. The two levels of significance were the 2015 low level at 1.0462 and the newly calculated weekly PP at 1.0435. During the previous trading sessions the pair fluctuated near the same level. However, there was no equivalent to the support of the new weekly pivot point. Due to that it might be possible that the rate will continue to remain rather flat before it moves lower later on.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart reveals little new information, as it can be seen that the rate just keeps pounding on the 2015 low level from the downside. It is being pushed towards it by a combination of short term SMAs.
Hourly chart
Traders remain bullish
Traders remain bullish on the pair, as 56% of open positions were long on Monday. Meanwhile, 60% of pending commands were to sell the Euro.
OANDA trader bullish sentiment remains unchanged, as 55% of open EUR/USD positions were long on Monday. Meanwhile, SAXO bank traders are also still on holidays, as 56.26% of open positions were short, compared to 56.30% before.