- SWFX market sentiment is 55% bearish
- Trader pending orders are 52% to sell
- Pair opened Monday's session at the 1.1181 level
- Aggregate daily technical indicators bet EUR/USD will decline
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: Italian Industrial Production; EU Sentix Investor Confidence
US employment growth slowed unexpectedly last month, official data revealed on Friday. According to the US Department of Labor, US private companies created 156,000 new jobs in September, while market analysts expected the economy to add 171,000 jobs in the reported month. Meanwhile, the previous month's reading was revised up to 167,000 from the originally reported gain of 151,000. Although the report suggested the economic expansion was still remaining on track, the chances of an interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next month decreased markedly. However, the odds of a December rate remained quite high, despite the disappointing, despite today's disappointing jobs report. The unemployment rate grew to 5.0% in September, as more Americans re-joined the labor force. Average hourly wages rose to an annualized rate of 2.6% last month, in line with analysts' expectations, whereas the average work week grew 0.1 to 34.4 hours. A broader measure of unemployment, which includes part-time workers and people who stopped searching for jobs, held steady at 9.7% in September. Professional and job services created 67,000, health care and restaurants added 33,000 and 30,000 jobs, respectively, contributing most to the September job growth.
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped to its lowest level in 43 years, official figures revealed on Thursday. According to the US Department of Labor, initial jobless claims fell 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 249,000 in the week ending October 1, compared to the preceding week's reading of 254,000, while market analysts anticipated a slight rise to 255,000 in the reported period. It was the 83rd consecutive week of initial claims remaining below the 300,000 level, the longest streak since 1973. Furthermore, the four-moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, declined 2,500 to 253,000 last week, the lowest level since December of 1973. The data also showed the number of continuing claims decreased 6,000 to 2.058 million in the week ended September 24, while its four-week moving average declined 21,000 to 2.095 million. Meanwhile, analysts expect Friday's NFP report to announce 171,000 new jobs for September and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.9%. Immediately after the release of initial jobless claims, the US Dollar rose against other major currencies, trading at 1.1179 against the Euro, 1.2641 against the British Pound and 103.89 against the Japanese Yen, while its Index advanced to 96.44.
Upcoming fundamentals: Minor European data and US holiday
US banks will be closed in observance of Columbus Day, and data will not be coming from the US, which means that the US Dollar's strength will not affect the financial markets. However, some minor information will come from the EU. Italian Industrial Production change on a monthly basis will be out at 8:00 GMT and the EU Sentix Investor Confidence index will be out at 8:30 GMT. Although, both of these releases are most unlikely to affect the EUR/USD rate.
EUR/USD near 1.12 on Monday morning
Daily chart: The common European currency is surging amidst two levels of significance against the US Dollar, as the currency exchange rate approaches the 55-day simple moving average at 1.1197. Previously, the pair fell to the 1.11 level during Friday's trading session. However, there the rate found support and began a surge, which resulted in an almost 50 pip gain by the end of the session. As the rate had rebounded against a descending channel's lower trend line, it is most likely that the currency rate is now set to surge to the 1.1250 level in the near future.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart for the EUR/USD pair shows a fast depreciation of the Euro against the Greenback on Friday morning until it reached the channel's lower trend line at 1.1114, where it struggled for four hours and suddenly began to surge. The following surge reached the 1.12 mark around 13:00 GMT, and the rate bounced off of it. Afterwards the pair searched for more support, which it found at 1.1150. Since then the rate climbed back to 1.12 level, where it is being stopped by the 200-hour SMA form the upside, but support provided by the 100-hour SMA at the weekly PP at 1.1183 are pepping the rate up.
Hourly chart
Traders remain bearish
SWFX traders remain bearish, as 55% of open positions were short on Monday morning. In the meantime, pending commands are close to neutral, as 52% of set up orders are to sell. .
OANDA traders have become bearish on Monday, as 57.16% of open EUR/USD positions are long. In the meantime, SAXO Bank clients also remain bearish. However, the bearishness is higher than previously, as open short positions now add up to 63.98% compared to 55.90% during the previous trading session.