- SWFX market sentiment is 54% bearish
- Trader pending orders are 68% to sell
- Pair opened Friday's session at the 1.1150 level
- Aggregate daily technical indicators bet EUR/USD will surge
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: French Government Budget Balance; French Industrial Production; French Trade Balance; US Average Hourly Earnings; Non-Farm Employment Change; US Unemployment Rate; FOMC Member Fischer Speaks; FOMC Member Mester Speaks; FOMC Member George Speaks; FOMC Member Brainard Speaks; German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped to its lowest level in 43 years, official figures revealed on Thursday. According to the US Department of Labor, initial jobless claims fell 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 249,000 in the week ending October 1, compared to the preceding week's reading of 254,000, while market analysts anticipated a slight rise to 255,000 in the reported period. It was the 83rd consecutive week of initial claims remaining below the 300,000 level, the longest streak since 1973. Furthermore, the four-moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, declined 2,500 to 253,000 last week, the lowest level since December of 1973. The data also showed the number of continuing claims decreased 6,000 to 2.058 million in the week ended September 24, while its four-week moving average declined 21,000 to 2.095 million. Meanwhile, analysts expect Friday's NFP report to announce 171,000 new jobs for September and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.9%. Immediately after the release of initial jobless claims, the US Dollar rose against other major currencies, trading at 1.1179 against the Euro, 1.2641 against the British Pound and 103.89 against the Japanese Yen, while its Index advanced to 96.44.
US private companies increased their job creation less than expected last month, official data revealed on Wednesday. According to the ADP National Employment Report, non-farm private employment rose 154,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis in September, compared to the preceding month's downwardly revised figure of 175,000, while market analysts expected a slighter drop to 166,000 during the reported period. The ADP report comes out every month two days ahead of the NFP report, which is expected to announce 171,000 new jobs for September, following the previous month's 151,000. Meanwhile, ISM's Manufacturing PMI came in at 57.1, in September, after touching its lowest level of 51.4 points in August, while markets expect the Index to rise to 53.1. Furthermore, factory orders for US goods jumped 0.2%, surpassing the 0.4% fall forecast. The services sector accounts for approximately 80% of the US economy. In the meantime, the EIA data released on Wednesday showed US crude oil inventories dropped 3.0 million barrels last week, declining for the fifth consecutive week. Analysts anticipated a buildup of 1.1 million barrels in the week ending September 30, after the previous week's 1.9 million-barrel fall.
Upcoming fundamentals: Data and speeches
The end of the week is coming with a busy schedule, as there are many data releases and five central banking representatives are set to speak. First of all, the day will begin with the French releasing data at 6:45 GMT, and the package will include the government budget balance, industrial production and the countries trade balance. At 12:30 GMT data will be published in the US, as average hourly earnings, non-farm employment change and the US unemployment rate will be released simultaneously. In the second half of the day central bankers will begin giving speeches, as today the IMF Meetings are occurring throughout the day. First will be FOMC Member Fischer at 2:30 GMT. Afterwards FOMC Member Mester at 16:45 GMT, FOMC Member George at 19:00 GMT and FOMC Member Brainard at 20:00 GMT. Moreover, it has to be noted that during Saturday at 17:00 GMT German Bundesbank president Weidmann will give a speech on the second day of the same event.
EUR/USD almost at 1.11 on Friday morning
Daily chart: The common European currency continued to depreciate against the US Dollar on Friday, as the currency exchange rate almost reached the 1.11 mark on early morning. During the early morning hours, the pair bent the lower Bollinger band and passed the first monthly resistance level at 1.1133. However, afterwards the exchange rate stopped and reversed its direction at 1.1110. Although, the next support level is the weekly S2 at 1.1098, and the way to it can be considered as open.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart for the EUR/USD pair reveals a constant fall of the Euro against the Greenback. It can be seen that the currency exchange rate was not even slightly prepped up by the weekly and monthly first resistance levels respectively at 1.1169 and 1.1133. Moreover, it is visible that the lower Bollinger band just bends together with the currency pair, and at most times it provides no support.
Hourly chart
Traders decrease their bearish outlook
SWFX traders have slightly decreased their bearish sentiment, as they are slowly nearing neutrality. On Friday 54% of open positions are short, compared to 56% on Thursday. In the meantime, pending commands have become more evidently bearish, as 68% of set up orders are to buy, compared to 61% on Thursday.
OANDA traders have become neutral/bullish on Friday, as 51.05% of open EUR/USD positions are long. In the meantime, SAXO Bank clients remain with a bearish stance. However, the bearishness is lower than previously, as open short positions now add up to 55.90% compared to 65.25% during the previous trading session.