- SWFX sentiment remains Euro-negative (56%)
- Bullish pending orders surged significantly above 50% for the first time in many weeks
- Key resistance is 200-day SMA at 1.1031, followed by 100-day SMA at 1.1061
- Daily technicals remain undecided after yesterday's move upwards
- Economic events to watch in the next 24 hours: French CPI (Nov); Bundesbank President Weidmann Speaks; SNB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference; US Unemployment Claims (Dec 4), Export/Import Price Index (Nov) and Monthly Budget Statement (Nov)
Germany's exports declined in October by a seasonally adjusted 1.2% to 99 billion euros, compared with a strong 2.6% gain in September, as some of key trading partners continue to struggle with economic difficulties. At the same time imports plunged 3.8% to 78.3 billion euros from the preceding month, whereas analysts had predicted a 1.0% decrease. As a result, the nation's trade surplus rose to 20.7 billion euros, from 19.2 billion euros in September, Destatis reported. The downswing was mainly due to sluggish demand in the world's second-biggest economy, China, which is experiencing its slowest rate of economic growth in a quarter of century. The recession in Brazil and Russia, which has been severely hit by western sanctions related to the conflict in Ukraine and by low oil prices, also reinforced the pain. However, annualized data suggested Germany's economy is still performing robustly. Overall exports increased by 3.3% compared with the same period last year, with exports to the EU surging 6.4%, while imports gained 3%. Furthermore, Bundesbank's provisional data showed Germany's current account declined to 23.0 billion euros.
Australia's unemployment rate declined to the lowest level in 20 months following the strongest two-month period of job creation in 28 years. The total number of people with a job surged 71,400 in November, following a gain of over 56,000 the month before, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. As a result, the jobless rate declined from 5.9% in October to 5.8% last month. In contrast analysts had predicted net job growth to fall by 10,000 in the reported month and the unemployment rate to climb to 6.0%. Furthermore, the participation rate, which measures the number of people either employed or actively looking for work, increased to 65.3% from 65.0% in October. However, analysts cautioned that the data was volatile and noted that some of the job gains were due to a rotation in the groups of people being sampled for the monthly reading. Surprise acceleration in jobs growth is expected to firm up the RBA's case to leave the cash rate at 2% in 2016. The RBA has lowered interest rates twice this year to encourage non-mining sectors of the economy to fill the gap left by the decrease in resources investment, but the transition has been patchy, with some businesses still remain reluctant to spend.
Upcoming fundamentals: SNB rate decision may have influence on Euro today
Even though Switzerland is not part of the European Union or most importantly the Euro zone, we tend to believe that any decisions made by the Swiss National Bank are highly likely to have some impact on the Euro. Recent decisions of the European Central Bank are estimated to be the key drivers of today's SNB rate decisions. Currently the target Swiss rate is -0.75%. On aggregate, analysts forecast no changes to the central bank's policy this time, but the regulator might indicate towards additional easing, in case the Franc continues to appreciate versus the Euro and the ECB deepens the QE programme even more in the future.
EUR/USD was successful at testing 55-day SMA
EUR/USD booked another bullish trading session on Wednesday, as the currency pair spiked above 1.10 to touch the most important 200-day SMA at 1.1031. Another moving average, the 55-day SMA, used to be an easy target for the bulls yesterday, and it was penetrated relatively quickly. Now we are watching the 200-day SMA, which is immediately followed by 100-day SMA at 1.1061. In case both of them are violated, it will proclaim a significant advantage of the bulls in the market. Otherwise, EUR/USD is at risk of coming back under the 1.10 mark soon.Daily chart
Apart from many vital resistances, which are creating a dense supply cluster in the daily chart, there is the September low that we are looking at in the one-hour chart today. Another streak of gains is highly likely to push EUR/USD towards that 1.1086 mark. Bulls are also being underpinned by the upward-sloping 200-hour SMA, as they are keeping a 220-pip spread between the spot and moving average line.
Hourly chart
Bullish/bearish distribution is broadly unchanged on Thursday
Nonetheless, even more OANDA traders turned pessimistic with respect to the EUR/USD currency pair's perspectives, namely 61.34% of them. A somewhat similar scenario is suitable for the SAXO Bank market, as their bearish advantage (69% vs 31%) tends to be substantially greater.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Two thirds of Dukascopy Community members forecast the Euro to depreciate versus the US Dollar this week
During the December 7-11 week the Dukascopy Community members again assume this currency pair is going to decline, as more than 66% of all votes are bearish.
Concerning traders' opinions: "Last week's ECB meeting disappointed the market with less than expected stimulus, and the result it was a rally for the Euro. Nevertheless, the fact remains that the Fed is expected to hike next week, which sets up USD bulls with attractive levels to short the pair this week," claims Jignesh.