- 56% of all SWFX open positions are long
- The yellow metal recently formed a short term ascending channel
- The 1,250 level provided support for a week
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US Core Durable Goods Orders; US Unemployment Claims
Oil prices jumped above the $50 level on Wednesday as US crude oil inventories dropped unexpectedly last week. According to the Energy Information Administration's report, domestic crude stockpiles fell 0.6 million barrels in the week ended October 21, following the preceding week's 5.2 million barrel decline, while market analysts anticipated a slight increase of 0.7 million barrels during the reported period. Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute's preliminary report released on Tuesday suggested a 4.8 million barrel rise for the same week. Crude oil stocks usually rise at this time of year as the summer driving season ends and refineries enter the autumn turnaround season. The EIA also said that gasoline stocks dropped 2 million barrels, whereas analysts had expectations for a 1 million barrel decline. Moreover, distillate stockpiles were down 3.4 million barrels, surpassing the 1.4 million barrel drop forecast. After the release, Brent futures were seen trading $0.33 lower at $50.46 per barrel by 14:35 GMT on the New York Stock Exchange, whereas West Texas Intermediate futures were seen trading $0.06 higher at $50.02 by the same time.
American consumers were more pessimistic about the path of the economy in October, according to latest survey results published on Tuesday. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped unexpectedly to 98.6 points in October, following the prior month's 104.1, the best level since 2007, while market analysts anticipated a milder decrease to 101.5 during the reported period. The Present Situation Index fell to 120.6 from 127.9 in the tenth month of the year, while the Expectations Index dropped to 83.9 from 87.2 registered last month. Furthermore, the share of respondents expecting more jobs in the upcoming months declined to 13.1% from September's 15.7%, whereas the percentage of those expecting incomes to rise remained unchanged at 17.5% in October. Nevertheless, the share of respondents expecting fewer jobs fell to 17.0% from 18.1% seen in September, as well the percentage of those expecting incomes to drop to 9.8% from the previous month's 10.4%.
Upcoming fundamentals: Concentrate on US data at 12:30 GMT
There will be various, minor data releases occurring during today's trading session and the early morning of tomorrow. However, as experience has shown, most of them will not even affect the markets slightly at the moment of the release. Due to that fact we would advise to keep an eye out for the US Core Durable Goods Orders and most importantly US Unemployment Claims. Both of the data releases are set for 12:30 GMT.
Gold fails to break out and remains squeezed in
Daily chart: The yellow metal once more rebounded and scored minor gains on Thursday morning. Previously, the metal failed to break through the resistance cluster above it, as the weekly R1 turns out to be the strongest level of significance of the cluster, and it stopped the bullion for a second time this week. However, the yellow metal is very slowly moving higher, as the lower boundary of the fluctuations keep moving upward in accordance with an ascending channel pattern. The metal is set to continue fluctuating below the resistance cluster, which begins around 1,272.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart reveals that the attempts to break through the weekly R1 at 1,276.81 happened one after another, and the bulls dropped their efforts at 10:00 GM. Afterwards, the bullion fell to the 200-hour SMA, which began prepping the metal up, and it was not the weekly PP after all, which provided support.
Hourly chart
Traders remain bullish
Meanwhile, OANDA Bank and SAXO bank trader bullish sentiment is back up to previous levels. OANDA open long positions have increased to 75.23%, compared to 71.51% on Wednesday. SAXO bank traders have bounced their sentiment around even more, as 68.64% of traders are long, compared to 61.15% during yesterday's trading.