GBP/USD could continue to decline

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

The GBP/USD exchange rate has reached the psychological level at 1.2670.

Given, that the British Pound is under pressure due to concerns about a leadership contest in the Conservative party, it is likely, that the rate could maintain its decline.

Latest Fundamental Event

The British Pound appreciated against the US Dollar, following the UK Average Earnings Index data release on Tuesday at 08:30 GMT. The GBP/USD exchange currency rate gained 21 pips or 0.17% right after the release. The British Pound continued trading at the 1.2700 level against the Greenback.

Office for National Statistics released the UK Average Earnings Index data, which came out better-than-expected of 3.1% compared with forecast 2.9%.

According the official release: "Between February to April 2018 and February to April 2019 for employees in Great Britain regular pay was estimated to have increased by 3.4% in nominal terms and by 1.5% in real terms. The total pay was estimated to have increased by 3.1% in nominal terms and by 1.2% in real terms." 


US Retail Sales data release could move GBP/USD rate



On Friday, June 14, the US Retail Sales data will be released at 12:30 GMT. Last time, the rate made an eleven-pip move. 

GBP/USD short-term review

Yesterday, the GBP/USD exchange rate reversed south from the upper boundary of the short-term descending channel circa 1.2740 and dropped to the 200-hour SMA.

On the one hand, the currency pair could maintain its decline, as the British Pound is pressured by the political situation in the UK. A potential downside target is the weekly S1 located at the 1.2646 mark.

On the other hand, a reversal north from the psychological level at 1.2670 could occur within the following trading hours. However, it is unlikely, that the pair could exceed the 1.2696/1.2708 range due to the resistance cluster formed by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs, as well the weekly PP.

Hourly Chart



As apparent on the chart, the GBP/USD exchange rate has been trading sideways around the 1.2700 level since last Tuesday.

Note, that the rate is pressured by the monthly PP located at the 1.2792 mark, thus, no significant changes are expected.

Daily chart


Traders are still long


On Thursday, 64% of positions on the Swiss Foreign Exchange were long.

Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range were long, as 53% of orders were set to buy.

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