On Wednesday, the EUR/USD was surging after finding support in the lower trend line of the ascending pattern of the hourly candle chart. The rate was about to once more test the resistance of the 1.1320 level.
At that level the 55-day simple moving average was still located at. This technical level kept the currency exchange rate down since April 12.
The European Single Currency depreciated against the US Dollar, following the EU Main Refinancing Rate release last Wednesday at 11:45 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange currency rate lost 3 pips or 0.02% during a minute, right after the release. The European Single Currency continues trading at the 1.2760 area against the US Dollar.
The European Central Bank released the EU Main Refinancing Rate data in line with expectations of 0.00%.Note, that the Monetary Policy Statement was released at the same time with the ECB Main Refinancing Rate.
"The Governing Council now expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the end of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary," the ECB said in a statement, reaffirming its interest rate guidance.
European data will impact the EUR/USD on Friday
This week has notable data releases that will both cause significant moves in various currency pairs and be covered by Dukascopy Analytics.On Wednesday, the UK Consumer Price Index will be released at 08:30 GMT. Afterwards, at 12:30 the Canadian CPI and Trade Balance will be released. This is expected to cause the biggest impact during this week.
The data flow will end on Thursday. The European Manufacturing PMIs will be released at 07:15 GMT and 07:30 GMT. Dukascopy Analytics will cover the 07:30 GMT, as at that time the German PMI will be published. The German data causes the biggest reaction on EUR pairs.
An hour later, at 08:30 GMT, the UK Retail Sales will be published.
Last but not least, the Canadian and US Retail Sales will be published at 12:30 GMT. Both data sets combined could cause a move on the USD/CAD of up to 30 pips.
Meanwhile, check out previous data release covers and economic calendar analysis on the Dukascopy Webinars YouTube channel.
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
On the hourly chart the rate was located above the hourly chart's technical significance levels. The rate had no resistance as high as the 1.1345 level. At that level the weekly R1 was located at.In general, the rate was expected to be pushed upwards to the resistance of the ascending channel pattern and a weekly R1 at 1.1345.
On the other hand, the rate might continue to trade sideways and fail to pass the resistance of the 1.1320 level before hourly support levels push it through.
Hourly Chart
The daily chart reveals that the resistance of the 55-day simple moving average is keeping the rate down. The technical analysis level has been providing resistance since April 12.
At the moment this level is the top one to watch. Only if it is broken the rate will have a free range to surge up to the 1.1345 level.
Daily chart
On the Swiss Foreign Exchange of the total open position volume 75% was short on Tuesday. The short position proportion had been growing for a week.
On Wednesday morning, 72% of the volume was short. Most likely traders closed short positions when the pair bounced off the support cluster that can be seen on the hourly chart.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range were bearish. Namely, 57% of all orders were set to sell.