- SWFX market sentiment is 69% bullish today
- 61% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to SELL
- Economic calendar review at 12:00 GMT
On Monday morning the common European currency booked a new low level, as the EUR/USD currency rate fell down to a support level at 1.1365.
The Greenback weakened against the European single currency , following the US CPI data release last Friday. The EUR/USD currency pair lost 15 pips, or 0.13%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.1455 area, which is an insignificant change.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released Consumer Price Index data that came in line with expectation of 0.2%. The CPI rate stays unchanged, repeating itself from period to period.
The Capital Economics' senior US economist Michael Pearce said. "Our forecast is that core inflation will continue to trend higher from here, with core PCE inflation hitting 2.3 per cent by the end of this year. With economic growth strong and inflation overshooting, the Fed will continue hiking interest rates once a quarter over the coming 12 months."
Calendar review at 12:00 GMT
The economic calendar for Monday is empty. However, there is always something that can be done by macroeconomic data release traders and analysts.
Namely, the weekly economic calendar's review is set to occur on the bank's live webinar platform at 12:00 GMT. During the webinar a plan for the week will be laid out.
EUR/USD weak due to TRY exposure
The common European currency has lost considerable 2.13% against the US Dollar during the last two sessions. Traders have pushed the rate lower due to fears of the Euro's exposure to the crisis-hit Turkey.By Monday morning, the rate had plunged to a fresh 13-month low, being supported by the monthly S3 at 1.1365. In addition, the bottom boundary of a newly-drawn channel is likewise located there.
Technical signals are pointing to a recovery in this session, as shown by gradually-recovering indicators. In this case, daily gains should be capped near the 55-hour SMA at 1.15. However, traders should still take into account that Turkey may still cause some downside pressure on the Euro before the expected appreciation actually takes place. A possible target is the psychological 1.13 mark.
Hourly Chart
Due to the recent sudden drop a full review of the daily chart has been conducted. There are couple of main points to describe.
First of all relevant Fibonacci retracement levels were drawn, which indicate that the drop was being held back by a 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level. On Friday that level was passed. The next supporting Fibonacci retracement level is at the 1.1284 mark located 61.80% retracement level.
Meanwhile, the most notable fact is the discovery of the large scale descending pattern, which represents the currency exchange rate's decline throughout 2018. Although, the pattern's support line is not going to provide support in the upcoming months, as it is as low as the 1.10 mark.
Daily chart
The short term oriented retail traders of the Swiss Foreign Exchange are expecting a surge after the recent decline of the rate. Moreover, on Monday traders had increased the amount of long positions, as 69% of open positions were long, compared to the previous 66%.
However, no longer traders are expecting to open more long positions. Previously 56% of all trader set up orders were set to buy. On Monday, 73% of all trader set up orders on the Swiss Foreign Exchange were set to sell the EUR/USD.
Meanwhile, OANDA traders are bullish on the EUR/USD pair as 59% of open positions are long. In addition, Saxo bank traders are 54% bullish in regards to the currency exchange rate.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility