- SWFX market sentiment is 71% bullish
- 54% of pending orders in 1000-pip range are set to BUY Gold
- US minor releases at 12:30 GMT
On Thursday, the bullion's price continued to trade between the SMA's of the hourly chart. The most notable update was the fact that the 200-hour SMA confirmed itself as a strong enough resistance level to force the commodity price lower.
The US Federal Reserve announcement Interest Rates that came in line with expectation of <2.00% and the actual rate of <2.00%.
James McCann, senior global economist at Aberdeen Standard Investments says: The Fed "has already attracted the ire of the president for raising rates. This political interference is clearly unhelpful but may return as September approaches. I can't see Trump's tweets making [Fed Chairman Jerome] Powell change his course but it will be a test of his mettle to navigate the minefield of questions he'll inevitably get."
US PPI and weekly Unemployment Claims
On Thursday, macroeconomic data traders will tune in to the Dukascopy Webinar platform at 12:20 GMT for the US PPI and Unemployment Claims release cover.
Main attention will be paid to the Producers Price Index. Although, most likely the data will influence the strength of the US Dollar and subsequently all of the financial markets only a little bit.
XAU/USD breaches short-term pattern
The yellow metal was fluctuating around the 55– and 100-hour SMAs on Wednesday. A strong decline was stopped by a July 2017 low, while resistance was provided by the 200– hour and 55-period (4H) SMAs near 1,216.00. A new development was a breakout from the prevailing short-term channel down yesterday evening.
The overall market sentiment for this session is mixed, while technical indicators on the 4H time-frame remain tended upwards. If looking at patterns, Gold should accelerate from the senior channel and fulfil the bullish scenario next week.
A possible target in this case is a two-week resistance and the monthly PP at 1,235.00. The nearest support is set by the monthly S1 at 1,202.00 that should not be surpassed today.
Hourly Chart
Strong bearish momentum has guided XAU/USD during the last three months. This has resulted in Gold losing 10.80% against the US Dollar.
The given move has sent technical indicators in the strongly oversold territory. Despite being there for a couple of sessions, the rate has yet failed to regain its losses.
Appreciation should nevertheless follow, as bears may soon lack the necessary momentum to push Gold lower. The nearest resistance is a two-week trend-line and the monthly PP at 1,235.00. A breakout from this cluster would create the way for a test of the 55-day SMA located near 1,256.00. on Thursday
Daily Chart
Massive amount of long gold positions
71% of SWFX market traders are going long on the pair. The number of pending orders shows the same bullish tendency, as 55% of set up orders are to buy. Previously, 56% of orders were to buy.
OANDA traders are also bullish on the commodity with 81% of open positions being long today. Saxo Bank traders share the same sentiment with 74% long positions.
There are more than one conclusions, which can be made from the information. First, the larger brokerages with more long term players are more bullish on gold. Second, the retail traders have set up orders to open even more long positions in case the bullion rebounds and surges.