- SWFX market sentiment is 63% bullish
- 63% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Quiet day in terms of fundamentals
- Upcoming fundamentals: US (Core) Durable Goods Orders m/m, Fed Chair Powell, German Buba President Weidmann and FOMC Member Bostic to speak, US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, ECOFIN meetings
The common European currency still remains under pressure by the 55-hour SMA.
The Greenback weakened against the Eurozone's single currency, following US Retail Sales data release on Tuesday. The EUR/USD currency pair gained only 2 pips, or 0.02%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.1805 area.
The Census Bureau released two data sets simultaneously, where Residential Building Permits for the month of April came out in line with a forecast of 1.35M, moreover, the same number was released in the previous period.
The US Dollar's slight weakening may be affected due to the lower-than-expected Housing Starts data of 1.29M, compared to the forecast of 1.32M.
Important fundamentals in sight today
The Unites States is to release the monthly Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders at 1230GMT. According to estimates, the number of Durable Goods Orders contracted by 1.3% in April, while the core reading is expected to show a 0.5% increase during the same period. Meanwhile, the Revised Consumer Sentiment by the University of Michigan is published at 1400GMT.
In addition, three central bankers are to speak today. The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a panel discussion titled ‘The future of central banking?' in Stockholm at 1320GMT. The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael Bostic will participate in a research event on technology-enabled economic disruptions at 1545GMT. Lastly, the President of Deutsche Bundesbank is due to speak at the Sveriges Riksbank Anniversary Conference at 1920GMT.
EUR/USD remains weak
Following two days of decline which started on Tuesday, the Euro tried to regain some of the lost positions yesterday. This appreciation, however, was not long-lived, as the combination of the 55– and 100-hour SMAs continued to provide an unbreakable resistance for the pair.During the last week, the pair has diminished its trading range within a six-week descending channel, thus forming a junior wedge. It is expected that this pattern is eventually breached to the upside, so that the rate could test the senior pattern and the 200-hour SMA near 1.1760. This means that the 55– and 100-hour SMAs should eventually be surpassed.
It is likely that these lines still provide strong resistance today prior surrendering early next week.
Hourly Chart
The common European currency continues to fall against the US Dollar for the third consecutive week. This massive decline has sent daily technical indicators in the strongly oversold territory.
Even if some bearish sentiment is still to prevail this week, the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1740 is unlikely to be breached before the pair starts a new medium-term surge.
Daily Chart
Bulls remain in charge
EUR/USD remains strongly bullish with 63% of open positions being long.
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 59% bullish and the US Dollar is 61% bearish.
OANDA traders are bullish on the Euro with 55% of open positions being long today (-4%). Meanwhile, the market sentiment of Saxo bank clients stands at equilibrium.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility