- Market sentiment remains 56% bearish
- 68% of pending orders in 1000-pip range are set to BUY gold
- Non-vital data sets
The yellow metal remains in the previously established triangle pattern. However, on Thursday it was still being squeezed in and a break out was expected to occur in the near future.
The Census Bureau released the Building Permits data that came out slightly better-than-expected and instead of the forecast of 1.33M, the residential building permits grew by 1.35M in the period of March.
Building Permits rose by 2.5% annually, reaching the 1.354M growth pace, thus signaling how much of a construction is in the process. Moreover, single-family house building has retained close to the utmost levels ever since the recession began.
No important fundamentals today
From the perspective of Dukascopy Analytics Thursday's trading session is set to be empty, as there are no data releases scheduled to occur during the day, which might cause a notable increase in volatility.
However, be careful during the various speeches of three FOMC members at 12:00, 13:30 and 22:45 GMT. One of them might reveal too much information about monetary policy, which might cause a bounce in US Dollar related pairs.
In addition, a rather dangerous time to be in the markets will be the 12:30 GMT release of the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and the US weekly Unemployment Claims.
XAU/USD bullish today
After testing the 55– and 100-hour SMAs for a couple of hours, Gold accelerated mid-Wednesday and dashed through a three-day resistance of 1,350.00. Further advance was stopped by the monthly R1 at 1,355.00, thus leaving the rate between the aforementioned two levels until Thursday morning.
Bullish technical indicators suggest that the monthly R1 should be eventually surpassed, thus allowing for a re-test of the senior channel or the 201/2018 high near 1,360.00 and 1,366.00, respectively.
The nearby-located 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs likewise point to a price increase today, as these moving averages are expected to guide the pair higher.
Hourly Chart
The daily chart shows that the commodity price has been declining gradually in a downward-sloping channel. The pair might push for its upper boundary circa 1,355.00 during the following days prior to reversing to the downside and moving towards the 55-day SMA.
Daily Chart
Markets remain bearish
SWFX market sentiment remains bearish with 56% of traders holding short positions. Meanwhile, pending commands were set to buy the metal in 53% of all cases.
OANDA traders remain bullish on the pair, as 52% of open positions are short. In addition, Saxo bank traders are 56% short.