- SWFX market sentiment is 71% bullish
- Pending orders in the 100-pip range are 58% to BUY
- Rare release on Monday
The US Dollar has continued to decline against the Japanese Yen. However, on Monday morning it seemed that the decline had ended. The currency pair traded sideways in the range from 107.10 to 107.30 levels.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed lower-than-expected data in Consumer Price Index in March. On month-to-month basis CPI showed its first decrease in 10 months by 0.1%, compared to a growth of 0.2% in the prior month.
However, economists had forecast it to stay unchanged; the drop was caused by the decline in gasoline costs. Moreover, rising prices for rental accommodation and healthcare continued to put pressure on underlying inflation.
A release of data on Monday
Although we will have our research webinar at 12:00 GMT, during which we should review and pick out the week's data releases to cover, there is something set to occur today.
Namely, the US Retail Sales data sets will be published at 12:30 GMT. The release is considered high impact and will be covered by our analytics team. The release will be a part of the Dukascopy Monday's research webinar, during which the rest of the week will also be looked at.
USD/JPY likely to respect trend line
The US Dollar continued to appreciate against the Yen for the second consecutive session on Friday. Despite this upside movement, the pair was generally trading sideways in the 107.20/80 range.Downside risks prevailed during the Asia session which pushed the rate down to the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP circa 107.20. The bottom boundary of a four-week channel is likewise located there. The Greenback should eventually breach this channel to the downside and test the 106.70 area, as it has not been able to surpass 107.65 for several sessions.
However, technical indicators suggest that a breakout of the aforementioned support cluster should not occur today. In this case, a possible upside target is the weekly R2 at 108.00.
Hourly Chart
It is still assumed that the patterns, which can be observed now, are too small and are only a part of a larger trend, which is still in the formation. >
Watch the daily chart in an order to try and spot the moment, when the new medium term pattern reveals itself.
Daily chart
SWFX traders are still on the long side, as 71% of open positions remained bullish during the morning hours. Furthermore, trader set up orders remain bullish, as 58% of trader set up orders were to buy the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.
Meanwhile, the market sentiment of OANDA traders remains strongly bullish with 65% long positions. In addition, Saxo bank traders are 56% long in regards to this pair.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility