- Traders are bearish with 57% short positions (+5%)
- 53% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Strong support cluster near 1.2330
- Upcoming events: German Buba President Weidmann, FOMC Members Dudley, Mester and Quarles to speak
The Greenback strengthened against its European counterpart, following the US core durable goods orders data released on Friday. The EUR/USD currency pair lost 17 pips, or 0.14%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.2336 area.
The Census Bureau reported that the country's core durable goods orders came in better than expected, posting 1.2% uptick in February and surpassing the forecast of a 0.5% surge. One of the main reasons for this rebound was the increase in shipments of core capital goods. Moreover, non-defense capital goods orders recorded the biggest increase in five months. This surge indicates that business spending is set to continue.
Minor speeches scheduled for today
Four speeches are scheduled for this session. The day will start with the President of Deutsche Bundesbank Jens Weidmann who is to deliver a speech titled ‘New Momentum for Europe' at the central bank of Austria at 0930GMT.
Meanwhile, the President of the Federal Bank of New York William Dudley, the President of the Federal Bank of Cleveland Loretta Mester and the Federal Reserve Governor Randal Quarles are set to speak at separate events at 1630GMT, 2030GMT and 2310GMT, respectively.
EUR/USD shows further upside potential
The strong support of the 200-hour SMA allowed the Euro bulls to grow stronger during the second part of Friday. Even though this up-move was not very significant, the pair did manage to breach its nearest resistance formed by the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement and a downward-sloping trend-line at 1.2360.The Asian session showed no changes to the overall price level, as further advance is restricted by the weekly R1 at 1.2380. Given that the prevailing trend-line was breached to the upside, it is likely that the Euro continues to appreciate against the US Dollar during the following session. This scenario is likewise supported by technical indicators.
Gains could be capped near the monthly R1 and a channel line near the 1.2435 mark.
Hourly Chart
EUR/JPY has been trading sideways since early March, as the strong support of the 55-day SMA has not allowed the pair to move below the 1.22 mark.
The Euro might still push slightly higher towards the weekly R1 and the upper boundary of the junior channel this week. However, the general direction should nevertheless remain south to eventually breach the senior channel and test the 100-day SMA and the monthly S1 at 1.2070.
Daily Chart
Sentiment strongly bearish
The number of short positions of EUR/USD is 57% in this session which is a 5% increase from Friday.
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 62% bearish and the US Dollar is 56% bullish.
The bearish sentiment of OANDA traders is standing at 60% short positions today (+2%). Saxo Bank clients share the same percentage of short positions today (+2%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility