- Traders are bearish with 54% short positions (-1%)
- 59% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Significant support cluster near 1.2330
- Upcoming events: G20 Meetings, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
The Euro strengthened against the Greenback, following the release of the EU trade balance report. The EUR/USD currency pair gained 14 base points, or 0.11%, reaching the 1.2295 level, to continue fluctuating and reaching the intraday's high around the 1.2325 area.
The Eurostat revealed on Monday that the EU trade balance data did not meet expectations, showing the trade surplus of 19.9B in January, following the downwardly revised 23.2B in the prior month. Even though the data came out less-than-expected, it was positive and it positively impacted the growth of EUR/USD currency pair. Moreover, interesting initial reactions on main pairs can be seen, where EUR/GBP stood out with a 0.20% downturn, caused by recent Brexit agreements.
G20 Meetings
The main focus in this session is G20 meetings to be held today for the second day. Meanwhile, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment is released at 1000GMT. This fundamental event, however, is market with intermediate importance; thus, it should not cause any fluctuations in the market.EUR/USD allays after surge
The Euro rallied against the US Dollar on Monday, thus closing the session with a 55-pip gain. The most notable surge was apparent mid-session when a successful Brexit agreement gave additional bullish push.The rate moved above the 200– and 100-hour SMAs and was therefore located near the 1.2360 area which has provided strong resistance during the previous weeks. This breakout might be interpreted as a signal for a continuous advance north. However, the aforementioned resistance area could introduce some changes to this assumption and thus force the Euro lower down to the weekly PP and the 55-hour SMA circa 1.2310.
The rate moved above the 200– and 100-hour SMAs and was therefore located near the 1.2360 area which has provided strong resistance during the previous weeks. This breakout might be interpreted as a signal for a continuous advance north. However, the aforementioned resistance area could introduce some changes to this assumption and thus force the Euro lower down to the weekly PP and the 55-hour SMA circa 1.2310.
Hourly Chart
EUR/USD breached the 55-day SMA during the early hours of Monday, thus adding some ground to the overall bearish sentiment that is dominating the given pair.
It is expected that the pair continues its movement towards the senior channel located near 1.22 this week. The 50.00% Fibonacci retracement is likewise located nearby. This bearish scenario is supported by technical indicators on the daily time-frame.
However, the 55-day SMA might provide some support for a few sessions, thus leaving the rate stable during this time.
Daily Chart
Traders are bearish
The number of short positions of EUR/USD is 54% in this session (-1%).
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 61% bearish and the US Dollar is 53% bullish.
The bearish sentiment of OANDA traders is standing at 57% short positions today (-1%). Saxo Bank clients share the same sentiment with 59% short positions (+2%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility