- Traders are bearish with 58% short positions
- 53% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Significant support near 1.2340
- Upcoming events: Empire State Manufacturing Index, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, US Unemployment Claims
The Greenback strengthened against the single European currency, following the release of US retail sales report. The EUR/USD currency pair gained nine base points, or 0.07%, reaching the 1.2392 level, to continue fluctuating in the 1.2375 area.
The US Census Bureau revealed on Wednesday that US retail sales data did not meet the expectations, instead the gauge fell by 0.1% in March, continuing the slowdown in the first quarter of 2018. This was the third consecutive month of declines in the US retail sales since April 2012. One of the main reasons for the negative retail sales data is the decrease in household spending on motor vehicles and other big–ticket items.
No significant events
This trading session is likely to be quiet in terms of fundamentals, as no significant market shakers are scheduled for today. The Unites States is two publish three sets of data at 1230GMT, namely, the Empire State and Philly Fed Manufacturing indices, as well as the weekly Unemployment Claims.
EUR/USD likely to be pressured north
The Euro managed to remain near 1.24 during the Asian session early on Wednesday, thus trying to gain enough strength to surpass the weekly R1 at 1.2412.Bears saw an opportunity to push the rate lower—a move which was strengthened by rather dovish comments from the ECB President Draghi during the first part of the day. The subsequent fall, however, failed to match support set by the 55– and 200-hour SMAs and the 23.60% Fibo at 1.2360.
It is likely that this barrier pressures the rate higher during this session, especially when a strong support cluster near 1.2355 is apparent on the four-hour chart, as well. Gains are likely to be capped near the one-month high of 1.2440. The prevalence of this scenario would push the Euro closer to a medium-term channel circa 1.2450.
Hourly Chart
The Euro retraced from the breached channel last week and has since edged slightly lower. It is likely that the pair continues its medium-term down-trend and approaches the bottom boundary of the senior channel circa 1.22 during the following trading sessions.
Daily Chart
Traders are bearish
The number of short positions of EUR/USD is 58% in this session.
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 64% bearish and the US Dollar is 56% bullish.
The bearish sentiment of OANDA traders is standing at 59% short positions today (-1%). In addition, Saxo Bank clients hold 61% short positions (-1%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility