- SWFX market sentiment is 52% bearish
- 54% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to SELL
- 51% of traders are bearish on the Dollar
- Upcoming Events: US Unemployment Claims, Trump visits China
Despite an announcement of conclusion of deals worth $253.4B between American and Chinese companies, the Dollar did not appreciate against the Euro. To certain extent these hesitations can be explained by reaction of markets on Paul Ryan's warning that tax reform implementation could be delayed.
The EUR/USD exchange rate continued to increase on the US JOLTS report on Monday. The release caused 20% volatility in the pair, where the Euro lost 3 base points against the US Dollar, but kept recovering in an attempt to enter the 1.1600 area again. The bullish sentiment was fuelled additionally by the Fed's Yellen speech in the evening.
The JOLTS report showed that demand for workers in the US remained solid, with 6.1M job openings registered in September. The job opening rate, as well as pace of hiring were unchanged at 4% and 3.6%, respectively. Despite the recent hurricanes' fallout, levels were steady, indicating the resilient labour market. However, nearly 1.7M people were laid off or fired in September, compared with 1.5M a year ago.
US weekly unemployment data
The only event that might produce some volatility in the markets will be the weekly release of information on the number of unemployment claims in the United States.
EUR/USD tries to bypass 1.1603
Despite that American and Chinese companies signed deals worth $253.4B over the last two days, the currency exchange rate stayed neutral. Most probably such hesitations, which result in relentless attempts of the pair to break through resistance area near the 1.6003 level, are related to concerns that Trump's tax reform could be delayed. On the one hand, it looks like the surge should be neutralized, as that zone is additionally secured by the 100-hour SMA. On the other hand, yesterday's movement points out formation of a new minor ascending channel, which already consists of three reaction lows. From this perspective, the exchange rate is likely to climb to the next resistance level located between the 200-hour SMA at 1.1621 and the weekly PP at 1.1631.
Hourly Chart
Although the pair did not make a major advance yesterday, but it was high enough to start this trading session above the slope that consists of two highs formed on October 25 and November 2. As there are no significant barriers nearby that could push the exchange rate in one of the available directions, most probably it will continue to consolidate between the weekly PP and S1.
Daily Chart
Traders remain bearish
In result of the previous trading session the bearish market sentiment slightly decreased, as 52% of open positions are short now.
In the meantime, the outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is the following: the Euro is 59% bearish and the Dollar is 51% bearish.
Traders of OANDA remain bearish, as 61% (-1%) of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO are neutrally bearish on this currency pair with 53% (+0%) of open short positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility