- SWFX market sentiment is 51% bearish
- 61% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to SELL
- 52% of traders remain bullish on the Dollar
- Upcoming Events: EU Core CPI Flash Estimate, US Core PCE Price Index, Personal Spending, Chicago PMI and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
A pressure from the 100-hour SMA from the top and the weekly S2 from the bottom put the pair in a limbo near the 1.1790 mark. But the fact that the weekly S2 is additionally backed up by the 55-hour SMA plus the 100% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1715, indicates that the rate has to make another breakout to the top and continue the surge, trying to bypass resistance barriers near the 1.1810, 1.1861 and 1.1933 levels.
The EUR/USD fell slightly in the wake of Thursday's data showing the US economy expanded at a stronger-than-expected pace in the June quarter. Following the report, the European single currency depreciated against the US Dollar by 13 base points or 0.11%, though its losses were offset initially. The pair continued a side move nearing the 1.1780 level.
The Commerce Department said that the US economic growth in the second quarter was the quickest in more than two years, with a 3.1% annual increase in the reported period. However, growth momentum is expected to be slowed owing to the impact of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey. Analysts suggested anticipated weakness would be softened by rising inventory investment in the Q3.
No significant data releases
Although for Friday an economic calendar contains a lot of different data releases, starting from inflation and ending with consumer spending, none of them are expected to cause significant price moves. In other words, none of them are expected to hinder the new emerging uptrend. Hence, those who are practicing swing trading are advised to switch their interest to the Pound and Loonie who are likely have a more intense Friday.
EUR/USD consolidates near weekly S2 at 1.1774
After breaking through a combined resistance set up by the weekly S2 at 1.1774 and the slipping 55-hour SMA, the currency pair lost an upside momentum provided the 100% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1715 and started to move horizontally. The reason behind inability to climb further to the top was another technical barrier represented by the 100-hour SMA near 1.8000.
As a result, today the pair remains tightly squeezed between the above indicators. Throughout the day the bears might drag the pair slightly to the bottom. But, generally, the Euro is expected to continue to appreciate against the Dollar, step-by-step crossing different resistance levels at 1.1810, 1.1861, 1.1881 and 1.1933.
Hourly Chart
For the EUR/USD currency pair traders previous trading session did not bring any unexpected news. In contrast, a minor green candle only confirmed beginning of formation of a new uptrend that is likely to elevate the Euro towards the 1.19 level.
Daily Chart
Traders become neutral
The bearish expectedly became neutral, as only 50% of open positions are short. In the meantime, the outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is the following: Euro is 55% bearish, while for the Dollar 52% bullish.
Traders of OANDA remain bearish, as 62% (-1%) of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO are also bearish on this currency pair with 56% (+2%) of open short positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility