- SWFX traders are 53% bearish
- 72% of pending orders in 1000-pip range are set to SELL the gold
- Pair bypasses psychological support near 1,300.00
- Upcoming Events: US Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
In result of the Fed's decision the pair managed to relatively easily bypass a psychological barrier, which was located near the 1,300.00 mark. At the moment, the rate does not face any significant barriers on its way to the south up until the weekly S3 at 1,286.17. Hence, the buck is likely to continue to gain value against the gold.
The two-day meeting of the Fed resulted in an overall agreement to keep interest rates unchanged at 1.25%, as widely anticipated. Despite lowered inflation forecasts, the FOMC still forecasted one more rate increase by the end of 2017 to sustain the US economic growth. The Central Bank also noted that it will start unwinding its balance sheet in October, while the market wanted it to wait and see how September's hurricanes affected the economy.
Weekly employment data
As it usually happens, a very important and intense day becomes replaced by a quiet day. Even though at 12:30 GMT the US will publish an update on the number of unemployment applications as well as release the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, none of these events are expected to cause high volatility in the markets. For this reason, it would be more interesting and profitable to follow Mario Draghi speech that will be delivered afterwards at 14:30 GMT.
XAU/USD bypasses psychological level at 1,300.00
As it was expected, most of the previous trading day the pair spent in a surge, trying to reach and break through a barrier set by the 100-hour SMA and the upper edge of a descending channel. A decision made by the Fed to leave the interest rate unchanged an impulse strong enough to push the rate through a significant support, which was located near the 1,300.00 mark. From a general perspective, further movement of the pair is expected to continue to be guided by bears. As regards the current situation, after crossing the above psychological level the rate has not significant obstacles on its way up until the weekly S3 at 1,286.17, which is located at the intersection with the bottom boundary of the active formation. Hence, the gold is likely to lose some more value against the buck today.
Hourly Chart
From a daily perspective, yesterday's appreciation of the buck against the gold was fully in line with the junior descending channel that represents a part of a larger dominant channel up. The next likely target for the pair would be a combination of the 55-hour SMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,278.96.Daily Chart
Markets sentiment remains bearish
Traders of Dukascopy remain bearish on the price of gold, as 53% of open positions are short. In the meantime, 53% of pending commands are to buy the commodity.
OANDA Gold traders remain neutral, as only 50% of open positions are long. In the meantime, SAXO bank traders are neutrally bullish, as 55% of open positions are long.