- 56% of pending orders in a 100-pip range are to buy the pair
- 65% of traders are bullish on the Pound
- Gains could be capped near the 1.30 mark
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Upcoming Events: US CPI m/m, US Core CPI m/m, FOMC Members Kaplan and Kashkari speak
Positive Britain's economic reports for June resulted in a solid jump in the GBP/USD exchange rate right after the data came in. Following the release, the Sterling rose versus the US Dollar by 16 base points to touch the 1.2981 level.
The Office for National Statistics reported that the country's manufacturing output grew at the same pace as previously, while industrial production advanced unexpectedly over the month of June. The survey's results suggested that the manufacturing growth is likely to gain momentum in the third quarter, while exports would grow at a faster-than-estimated pace. Moreover, experts revealed that the economic expansion is likely to hold up sufficient growth pace in the second half of 2017 rather than decelerate.
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US Consumer Price Index
The economic calendar for August 11 is empty for the UK. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics, however, is to release the Consumer Price Index and the Core Consumer Price Index for the month of July at 1230GMT. In addition, two FOMC members are to speak at separate venues. Robert Kaplan, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, is to speak about economic conditions and monetary policy at an educational event in Arlington at 1340GMT, while Neel Kashkari, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, will speak at the Independent Community Bankers of Minnesota Annual Convention at 1530GMT.
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GBP/USD at three-week low
GBP/USD remained between the weekly S1 and the 100-hour SMA on Thursday, thus providing two additional confirmations of a descending triangle. The exchange rate managed to bounce off the short-term down-trend this morning; however, the lack of volatility demonstrates trader indecisiveness towards the pair. As the rate has entered a consolidation phase, it is rather unclear to which direction the Pound is set to go. Bearish technical indicators are signalling to a possible recovery that may lead the Sterling towards the 1.3020/40 area. Alternatively, the aforementioned triangle may be respected, thus setting the British currency down to the weekly S1 at 1.2953. Given the characteristics of this pattern, the weekly and monthly S1s should be breached to the downside.
Hourly chart
Downside risks prevailed on Thursday, thus pushing the rate down to the 1.2950 mark. Despite bulls managing to take the upper hand in the morning session, the rate has not been able to form a distinctive move either direction. Thus, it remains stranded between the 20-hour SMA and the weekly S1 at 1.3065 and 1.2944, respectively.Daily chart
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Sentiment becomes neutral
The bullish trader sentiment has not changed on Friday, with 65% of open positions being long. Meanwhile, the number of pending orders is almost at equilibrium, currently standing at 52% to buy the Pound (+4%).
In the meantime, traders at Saxo Bank have kept their bearish sentiment, with 64% of traders holding short positions (+2%). The same bearish sentiment is shared by OANDA where 57% of open positions are likewise short (-2%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility