- SWFX market sentiment is 58.40% bearish
- 51.40% of pending orders in 100-pip range to sell
- Pair opened Friday's session at 1.1681
- Upcoming Events: US Existing Home Sales
The surge provoked by Mario Draghi speech stopped near the 1.1681 level. The common European currency is losing value against its North-American counterpart amid a release of information on the French and German Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs.
Consumer inflation in the Euro zone rose in line with analysts' forecasts last month, official figures revealed on Monday. Eurostat reported that its Final Consumer Price Index came in at 1.3% in June, matching the flash estimate and falling down from 1.4% registered in preceding month. Meanwhile, the so-called core inflation rate rose 1.1% on an annual basis, following May's 0.9% increase.
An insignifficant news from the US
For the third week in a row, Monday's trading session does not contain a release of any signifficant data that might affect the Euro or the Dollar. Nevertheless, traders are advised to pay attention to the US Existing Home Sales that will be announced at 14:00 GMT, as it allows to get better understanding about the a situation on the US housing market as well as to give some insight about people' s income.
EUR/USD rebounds near 1.1681
An early Monday's morning showed that the EUR/USD stopped the surge that was triggered by a speech delivered by Mario Draghi last Thursday. The point, at which the pair made a u-turn, represents a reaction high of a three month long ascending channel. Taking into account how easily the Euro fell through the 20-hour SMA and the monthly R2 at 1.1657, allows assuming that it will not be stopped by the 55-hour SMA as well. The closest barrier that has a chance to slow down the drop is the weekly PP at 1.1594 that will be additionally backed up by the 100-hour SMA. Nevertheless, traders should take into account that a release of a number of fundamental data today and tomorrow might either accelerate the fall, or facilitate to a premature rebound.
Hourly Chart
The daily chart reveals that the pair is gradually approaching the upper trend-line of a medium-term ascending channel to make a second reaction high. Most likely, a rebound will follow, as it is additionally protected by the 100% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1714. However, because of the release of disappointing French and German macroeconomic data, the pair might end the day below the monthly R2 or even slip closer to the weekly PP, which is located at the 1.1594 level.
Daily Chart
Bearish sentiment continue to dominate
The situation in the SWFX markets remains unchanged, as traders remain bearish with 58.40% of open positions being short. However, the trader set up pending commands have shifted upwards, as 59% of them are to sell the Euro, compared to 55% previously.
Traders of OANDA are bearish, as 71% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO bank clients have slightly increased their bearish outlook, as 64% of open positions are short, compared to 63.90% on Friday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility