- SWFX market sentiment is 61% bearish
- Trader pending orders 52% bearish
- Pair opened Friday's session at 1.1151
- Upcoming Events: US New Home Sales
The common European currency remains near Thursday's levels against the US Dollar. However, new information is available due to the most recent fluctuations of the currency exchange rate. Namely, a new short term ascending channel pattern has been discovered. Although, the forecast of a decline in the medium term remains in force and is taken into account.
US oil inventories fell for the second consecutive time last week, official data showed on Wednesday. As reported by the Energy Information Administration, the number of barrels of crude oil dropped 2.5M in the week ended June 16, compared to the preceding week's decline of 1.7M barrels, while analysts predicted a much lower drop of 1.2M barrels. US crude oil production climbed to 9.35M barrels per day, 20K higher than in the prior week, the EIA reported.
US New Home Sales
The last trading session of the week will also be quiet as the rest of the week. However, there are some minor exceptions. During the morning hours the PMI data of the European countries was released. Although, as it came out gradually over the course of an hour, the release never causes fluctuations in the financial markets. Meanwhile, in the second half of the day a data release in the US should be looked at. The US New Home Sales data will be released at 14:00 GMT. Although, this data set is highly unlikely to influence the financial markets through the US Dollar.
EUR/USD reveals new pattern
The EUR/USD currency exchange rate did not bounce off the resistance of the 200-hour SMA, as it was forecasted on Thursday. However, the pair began a decline without the help of the resistance level. Moreover, by the end of the day's trading session the surge of the Euro against the US Dollar was resumed. Due to that reason a more in-depth analysis was done. As a result of the closer look, a short term ascending channel pattern was mapped. Although in accordance with the channel the pair should surge at least to the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1.1188 mark, it is highly possible that the 200-hour SMA, which on Friday was located at the 1.1176 level, will force the currency pair to change its direction sooner than expected.
Hourly Chart
The daily chart could and should be ignored on Friday, as it is not giving any additional information on Friday. The reason for such a situation is the fact that the Bollinger bands of the daily chart and the SMAs have almost not moved during this week.
Daily Chart
Bearish sentiment persists
SWFX traders are 61% short in regards to the pair on Friday. Meanwhile, 52% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.
Traders of OANDA are still bearish, as 67.75 of open positions are short on Friday, compared to 69.33% previously. In addition, SAXO bank clients also remain bearish, as 61.71% of open positions are short, compared to 62.76% on Thursday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast shows EUR/USD will trade at 1.12 in September
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between May 23 and June 23, expect, on average, that the currency exchange rate may trade at 1.12 during the third week of September. In general, 54% (+1%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be above 1.12 in the following ninety days. Meanwhile, 39% (-1%) of respondents expect to see the rate below 1.10.