The most influential market shakers for USD/PLN are considered to be economic and political news coming from the US. However, economic calendar for the given week is full of Polish data releases that should be taken into account by traders interested in the given pair. The first set of data is Corporate Sector Wages and Employment Growth scheduled for 12:00 GMT on Monday. Analysts forecast that Corporate Sector Wages grew 4.9% on a monthly basis, compared to 4.1% in April. Employment Growth is expected to remain unchanged at 4.6%. On Tuesday, Poland will release monthly data on Industrial Output, PPI and Retail Sales (forecasts: 8.6%, 2.9% and 9.1%, respectively) at 12:00 GMT. Even though analysts do not consider these data influential enough to strongly affect the pair, these forecasts do demonstrate the continuous growth of the Polish economy. In comparison, data released last week showed that US Retail Sales were -0.3% in May (forecasted at 0.1%), adding some concerns about the health of the US economy. This suggests that the Zloty may appreciate against the Greenback if Polish fundamentals correspond to forecasts.
Technical Analysis for June 19 – June 23
As apparent on the daily chart, the pair was trading in two channels simultaneously. The senior channel up was valid since August 2015 prior to being breached to the downside mid-April. The junior channel down, on the other hand, was formed in December 2016 and has since managed to confine the pair's descending movement. Following the aforementioned breakout, the US Dollar retraced back to the lower boundary of the senior channel and subsequently depreciated against the Zloty down to the 3.7120 mark. A death cross of the 55- and 100-day SMAs provided an early indication of the continuous depreciation that was followed afterwards. The current trend indicators suggest that the strength of the down-trend is starting to lose ground. This may confirm the assumption that the rate should eventually follow the junior pattern and approach a resistance cluster formed by the upper channel boundary and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near the 3.8200/3.8300 mark. It should be noted that retracement levels drawn from the 2015 low have worked effectively at altering the rate's direction on several occasions. Meanwhile, Bollinger bands have moved close together, suggesting that market volatility may increase considerably in the nearest time. To conclude, the US Dollar is expected to appreciate against the Zloty this week. The slope of the subsequent upside momentum is likely to be flat, especially if no strong movers affect the market. The pair may meet some resistance near the 3.8150 mark and retrace shortly down to the 20-day SMA.
Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Moving on to the hourly chart, USD/PLN was trading in a 3.7130/3.76300 range prior to reaching a four-week high at 3.8040. The strong appreciation on 15 June may have resulted from mitigated political pressures that weighted heavily on the US Dollar in the first half of that week. The pair was trading consistently in a flat upward trend (the two major jumps on 14 June are not taken into account, as they represent market reaction on fundamental events) before the strong surge which altered considerably the steepness of the upward momentum. Near-term technicals show mixed signals, demonstrating that the pair may trade either way. Nevertheless, it is expected that the Greenback is stopped by the 100- or 200-hour SMAs. Thus, the base scenario favours the pair bouncing off 3.7500 (an intersection of the 200-hour SMA and a short-term uptrend) and re-testing the 3.8040 mark. In the intermediate term, however, the pair is likely to break the previously-mentioned range and approach the upper boundary of the junior channel circa 3.400/3.500.
Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA