Risks from above pressure CAD/HKD

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
CAD/HKD extended a 35.6% dip over the last six years and posted an ultimate low of 5.3170 in early 2016. The pair has established an inconsistent channel down with altered trend-lines, spilling confusion into the picture due to the potential break above the original ones.

Monthly Chart:
© Dukascopy Bank SA


 Due to the changing nature of the channel lines, we do not attribute a high degree of credibility to the break and will look for more conclusive signals over the the first half of 2017. A violation of the Pitchfork trend-line would pave the way for a bullish reversal, but should be confirmed by a broken channel trend-line at 6.0485 to be able to see whether the modified channel tred-lines stay in place under presure. A Fibonacci expansions indicate turning points quite clearly along the way and could also be predictive of the bottom set last year.

Daily Chart:
© Dukascopy Bank SA


The daily chart shows, however, that the trend-lines to be attempted could take over the trend after all. A rising wedge is now leading the motion and suggests that a downward breakout might occur sometime soon – either to make a correction of the broken original channel boundary or to initiate a solid bearish trend. The Pitchfor line at could serve as a reasonable target around 6.0000 for the pair to bounce off in the case of a correctionbut would also be an obstacle if it tries to rally above all supply areas. The hourly chart shows a similar picture with a rising wedge breaking on the downside.

Aggregate Technical Indicators:
© Dukascopy Bank SA

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